Premier League 27th September 2014

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Chelsea v Aston Villa” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Chelsea were close to completing another smash and grab at Manchester City last weekend, something that would have seen them about 1.40 to win the Premier League title. However old boy Frank Lampard pegged them back to 1-1 and kept his old side within touching distance of the chasing pack. That chasing pack is headed (jointly) by Aston Villa.

The Villa were beaten 3-0 by Arsenal last weekend, that game saw Arsenal score all three of their goals in three minutes. Other than that they crazy period, the game was pretty poor, with Arsenal unable to hit the target and Villa unable to get the ball. I don’t think it’s time to write Aston Villa off as ‘regressing to the mean’ based on that performance and whilst I don’t think they’ll win at Chelsea, I feel they can give a good account of themselves.

Surprisingly for me, I’m interested in Both Teams To Score Yes in this match. It’s not often I say that as I’m a lover of a both teams to score no bet, however if you look at the below spreadsheet you’ll see why I’m interested.

Chelsea v Aston Villa

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The spreadsheet shows goal expectancies of;

  • Chelsea 1.972924
  • Aston Villa 0.843068

Those number may not appear to scream back Both Team To Score, but we’re not being asked to take the Yes side of the bet at the normal 1.8x that bookmakers offer. Instead we’re being offered 2.50, which is bigger than the 2.47 I make it.

We can also take confidence from the fact that Chelsea don’t look as solid defensively as they did last season. They’ve already conceded seven goals this season, one of those was against Burnley (the Clarets only goal this season), whilst Swansea also put two past them. Leicester went to Stamford Bridge and also caused Chelsea problems, they just couldn’t find the net.

The main concern with this bet has to be Villa’s ability to hit the target even if they do get a chance. They currently have the 2nd lowest % of Shots on Target (23.68%) in the league, which is obviously a major reason why they only have four goals in five games so far. However say all that 2.50 is too big a price on Villa creating and taking on chance.

Despite Villa looking stronger defensively this season, I’m not worried about the Chelsea side of the bet landing as I give them an 86% chance of scoring in this match.

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Back Both Teams To Score Yes at 2.50 – William Hill
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Hull v Manchester City” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Manchester City have had a lack-luster start to the season, however the signs are their that they are on the verge of showing the attacking form that saw them score 102 goals last season. The 7-0 second half victory over Sheffield Wednesday in midweek added to the number of chance they created when scoring twice at Arsenal a couple of weeks back are evidence of this. Sergio Aguero looks like he’s recovered from his injury issues, so a full 90 minutes for him should increases the potential for goals in this match.

I’m also confident of seeing an increased number of goals due to both of these defences looking shaky. Hull have conceded two goals against each of Newcastle, Aston Villa and West Ham, three side who you won’t be seeing in the top four of the scoring charts this season. Hull have however managed to score in all their games this season and their’s no reason to think they can’t find the net against a City side who haven’t kept a clean-sheet since the opening weekend.

Hull v Man City

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The numbers show that Man City are no value at 1.57, I have them at 1.79 based on Goal Expectancies of;

  • Hull 1.055863
  • Man City 1.84962

However with their attacking talent I do expect them to win. It makes much more sense to back the ‘value’ in the match which is for there to be Over 2.50 Goals at 1.85 (it’s 1.91 if you can get on with Boylesports).

The above spreadsheet shows that all the wins involving Over 2.50 and a Manchester City win are within the 2% margin of error I have set, add into that the green for 2-2 or 3-3 draws, plus all the Hull value scorelines and a I feel that their is a convincing case for backing overs instead of taking the risk with a Manchester City lay.

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Back Over 2.50 Goals at 1.85 –
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Manchester United v West Ham” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

I’m not actually going to bet on this match, due to it being impossible to get some sort of accurate rating on these sides. I’m not sure West Ham have actually improved on last season, despite strong visual impressions. Whilst Manchester United would appear to have improved going forward, but have regressed to the level of a Sunday league side defensively. The hosts also have injuries and suspensions at the back which makes them even harder to rate for this game.

Man Utd v West Ham

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The numbers show that Under 2.50 Goals, which is priced up at 2.80 with Bet Victor, looks to be a solid option. However like I said both these sides are difficult to get a rating for. therefore it’s a NO BET match for me.

 

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Sunderland v Swansea” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

I’ve been really impressed with Swansea so far this season, wins over Manchester United, West Brom and Burnley have left them 5th in the league. They were slightly unlucky to lose to Southampton last weekend, Wilfred Bony was sent off that day however he’s available for this match.

Sunderland haven’t won yet this season and that would be a worry. On the face of it draws at home with Tottenham and Manchester United look good on paper, but in reality they were both poor performances. A 0-0 draw away at Burnley, along with the 1-0 defeat at QPR don’t inspire confidence.

My goal expectancies for this are;

  • Sunderland 1.330926
  • Swansea 1.410194
Sunderland v Swansea

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The numbers for this match, right, show that both Sunderland and Swansea offer value. With the correct score that are highlighted in green I would say that Over 2.50 Goals, currently priced at 2.20 offers a good betting opportunity.

However I feel that Swansea are on the verge of an upgrade, whist Sunderland don’t seem any different to what we saw from them last season. Therefore I want to side with Swansea in this. They are priced up at 2.75, however I would of had them at around the 2.60 mark.

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Back Swansea at 2.75 – Betfred
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Liverpool v Everton Preview can be found HERE

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