Longchamps 5th October 2014

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”13:00 – PRIX DE L´ABBAYE” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

SOLE POWER has been in excellent form this season, he’s won all three of his starts over five furlongs in England and now heads to Paris with conditions to suit. In the past when he’s travelled over combinations of poor draws or soft ground have ruined his chances. This year is different though, he’s in the form of his life, has ground condition to suit and is drawn eleven. From eleventh he should be able to get in be able to drop in behind and wait for the gaps to open.

The only horse that I was ‘scared’ of in this race was Tiggy Wiggy, however she hasn’t been sent over. Therefore I give Sole Power around a 30% chance of winning this, which equates to odds of 3.33. My only other concern is if the gaps don’t appear, however that’s difficult to put a price on, especially as they opened up for him all season long.

[symple_box color=”green” text_align=”center” width=”100%” float=”none”] Back Sole Power at 3.50 – General [/symple_box]

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”14:10 – PRIX JEAN-LUC LAGARDERE” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

THE WOW SIGNAL was a horse that impressed me massively when winning The Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot. The form of that race has worked out well with the likes of Cappella Sansevero and Kool Kompany coming out to win group races. He then followed that success up by winning a Group One at Deauville with the impressive Windsor Castle Stakes winner, Hootenanny, finishing behind him. This is his first try at seven furlongs, but on breeding and visual impressions I see no reason for him not to see it out on good ground.

Gleneagles is a highly though of colt out of Ballydoyle, he stays seven furlongs with no issues, however on form I feel he might just have a bit to find on what The Wow Signal has shown, especially with this being his sixth race of the season. I rate Full Mast as the biggest danger, he’s only raced twice but has already won over course and distance, however he has to improve and hope that The Wow Signal doesn’t based on times and the form of his previous races.

[symple_box color=”green” text_align=”center” width=”100%” float=”none”] Back The Wow Signal at 3.00 – Coral [/symple_box]

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”14:45 – PRIX DE L´OPERA” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

I think that Tarfasha is a false favourite for this race, she finished 2nd in Taghroodas’ Oaks, however she was more then three lengths back. I think that piece of form makes he the same as the average fillies’ that ran in the race, nothing has come out of that race with any credit since. This race doesn’t have much depth to in in terms of quality, but the horse I want to side with is SULTANINA. She won a weak Nassau Stakes at Glorious Goodwood, but had the beating of Narniyn in that race. Last time out she came over to France where she finished 5th, I think that she gave a true showing of her abilities that day based on where she finished compared to Pomology. She was also a short neck behind Treve that day, many people will say that Treve hasn’t trained on, I am however of the opinion that Treve is running to her true level, she’s just not benefiting from the three year old weight for age allowance. I think that Sultanina, marginally, has the best form in a week race and at 8.00 I think she’s the call.

[symple_box color=”green” text_align=”center” width=”100%” float=”none”] Back Sultanina at 8.00 – Bet Victor [/symple_box]

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”15:30 – PRIX DE L´ARC DE TRIOMPHE” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

The Arc is all about the three year olds for me, I think that weight for age in this race is too great as a top class three year old should be an older horse, who probably isn’t at the top of the ratings. The reason we don’t get many top class older horses in  this is because most of the champion three year olds are sent to stud. So ignoring the older horses, cuts my list down to Tapestry, Montviron, Prince Gibraltar, Kingston Hill, Free Port Lux, Avenir Certain, Dolniya, Taghrooda, Harp Star and Ectot.

Montviron and Free Port Lux simply aren’t good enough.

Kingston hill is coming here on the back of the St. Leger, which made his task hard enough, being drawn twenty has made it near impossible.

I have doubts over whether Avenir Certain will stay the trip, she’s never raced over it and on breeding ten furlongs looks to be her maximum.

Dolniya would be more at home running in the Prix De L’Opera, she finished third in the Vermeille and an Arc winning filly should be winning that race.

Prince Gibralter is an interesting runner, on breeding he shouldn’t stay however his best performance to date is finishing 2nd over course and distance in the Grand Prix De Paris. It may be that his rivals that day were inconvenienced by the ground which helped him. On his last start he finished third, with Free Port Lux in second, that form isn’t good enough to win an Arc and he’s not one I’m wanting to back.

Ectot has form that ties in with Prince Gibralter, based on Teletext. Many people were impressed with his win on trials day, however I don’t see a half length win, pushed out, over Teletext with Adelaide back in third as good enough form to be joint favourite for The Arc.

So that leaves three…

Tapestry beat current favourite Taghrooda in The Yorkshire Oaks back in August, on that piece of form she has a massive chance. However being dropped back to a mile at Leopardstown last month where she had a hard race and finished 9th of ten isn’t the ideal Arc prep. That was the third time she massively disappointed over a mile this season, she’s a twelve furlong horse on breeding and form and her campaign concerns me. This race is an after thought, she was supplemented, for that reason I can’t back her but if she runs to form she’ll go close.

Taghrooda being beaten by Tapestry is a slight concern, but like I said above those were her optimum conditions. Before the Yorkshire Oaks she took on the boys and hammered them in The King George at Ascot. I would not be surprised to see her win this race, however she’s drawn fifteen which does have to go down as a concern due to the fact the horse I fancy is on the inside of her.

That horse is HARP STAR, the daughter of Deep Impact comes over from Japan and receives the advantages of weight for age and the fillies allowance. She has never won over twelve furlongs but was flying home wide and late when she lost a show in the Japanese Oaks. She finished second that day by a neck, in another three strides she would have won. In that race she recorded a time quicker than Tagrhooda has ever recorded, she has to travel a slightly shorter distance due to the draw and if/when it comes to a sprint in the final three furlongs I not only think she’ll beat Taghrooda, I think she’ll beat them all.

She followed up her Oaks second by beating the classy Gold Ship over ten furlongs at Sapporo last time out on the form of that and the time of her Oaks run she is going to be very hard to beat in my opinion. She’s drawn wider, which she’ll like as she’ll be able to drop in, and then make her move after coming off the final bend, if she gets it right then we could be seeing something as visually impressive as Treve last year.

So it’s that simple, Harp Star has been trained for this, has a draw that suits her racing style, receives weight and runs the quickest twelve furlong times.

[symple_box color=”green” text_align=”center” width=”100%” float=”none”]
Back Harp Star at 9.00 – General
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”16:50 – PRIX DE LA FORET” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

The ground doesn’t look like it’s going to come up soft enough for Olympic Glory and Garswood to be competitive in this, especially for Olympic Glory who is a miler, so seven furlongs on good ground make see him outpaced. I have to side with KARAKONTIE in this race, the three year old French 200 Guineas winner will appreciate the drop in trip after an unsuccessful run at 10.5 furlongs last time out. He’s also a course and distance winner and in my opinion he should be favourite for this.

[symple_box color=”green” text_align=”center” width=”100%” float=”none”]
Back Karakontie at 7.00 – General
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”17:20 – PRIX DU CADRAN” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Bathyrhon had Kicky Blue, High Jinx, Going Somewhere, Domeside and Trip To Rhodes behind him last time out, he was staying on well that day so there’s no reason to think any of those can turn around the two lengths plus deficit. Bathyrhon isn’t a great yardstick though, with that being only the 2nd win of his career.

Taking the horses from that race out leaves us with Fly With Me, Pale Mimosa and WIPLASH WILLIE. The selection was staying on well over 18 furlongs when finishing 2nd to Estimate last time out and this step up to 20 furlongs could bring out his career best performance in a very weak race for a Group One.

[symple_box color=”green” text_align=”center” width=”100%” float=”none”]
Back Wiplash Willie at 8.00 – 888Sport
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