Premier League 25th October 2014

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Goal Expectancies

West Ham 1.50 v 1.66 Man City

At odds of 1.60 Manchester City have to be taken on today. Just on performances this season and goal expectancies I have this match priced at;

  • West Ham 2.87
  • Draw 4.20
  • Man City 2.40
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Although I believe that Manchester City will improve, whilst West Ham will ‘receded to the mean’, I still couldn’t find a reason to make the visitors that short a price. The most likely score-line on my numbers is 1-1, currently priced at 10.50, I’d make it 9.48. Although saying that I am expecting there to be goals in this game, but all the Over/Under lines look almost spot on.

The only way I could possibly side with Man City in this game is by backing them to win 3-2 at 23.0, that’s the only score-line that approaches ‘value’ on their side, I would still have it priced up at 27.4 however.

I think the safest and cheapest way to approach this match is to lay the visitors at 1.61.

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Lay Manchester City at 1.61 – Betfair
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Liverpool v Hull” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Goal Expectancies

Liverpool 1.73 v 1.46 Hull

Another weekend and another match where Liverpool are too short, however this time I have enough trust in their opponents to take them  on. Liverpool should be favourites, but they shouldn’t be 1.45 against a very professional and well drilled Hull side. On my current numbers I would price the game up as;

  • Liverpool 2.27
  • Draw 4.26
  • Hull 3.07

However I do not that I expect Liverpool to improve once Daniel Sturridge returns, so their price would contract with Hull and the draw going out. The question then is whether Daniel Sturridge is worth over 24% to Liverpool’s performance, at the moment my answer to that would be no.

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From a correct score view point 1-1 looks to be the most likely score, priced at 10.5 as I would have this priced at 9.67. The best bet on the correct score market looks like it is a 2-1 victory for Hull, priced at 26.0 my numbers have it at 13.0. Like the Manchester City match the only way I could back Liverpool is to back them to win 3-2 at 26.0, as that price is almost bang on with my prediction of what the odds should be.

The Over/Under and Both Teams To Score markets make little appeal in this, as you can see from above the margins are very tight. I’m more than happy to take Liverpool on in this and laying them is my NAP today.

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Lay Liverpool at 1.46 – Betfair (NAP)
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