Premier League 4th October

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Hull v Crystal Palace” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

This game is priced up on reputations based on last seasons defensive solidarity of these two sides. However all the evidence so far this season points to goals. Hull have failed to keep a clean sheet since the opening game of the season, in their five subsequent games since then they have conceded eleven goals. The flip side of that is their improvement going forward, their nine goals is keeping them above the goal a game average they had last season.

Crystal Palace have a very similar profile, the organisation of last season just isn’t there at the moment. The ten goals they’ve concede is testament to that, however like Hull they appear to have improved going forward. With ten goals in six games and the goalscorers coming from all over the pitch their goal expectancy has risen dramatically from last season.

I have goal expectancies of Hull 1.701514 v 1.63352 Crystal Palace for this match. Given those expectancies the best bets are (based on perceived ‘edge’)

  • Over 3.50 Goals +18.34% (My Price 2.33, Actual Price 4.10)
  • Over 2.50 Goals +18.24% (My Price 1.54, Actual Price 2.15)
  • Over 1.50 Goals +13.13%  (My Price 1.18, Actual Price 1.40)
  • Crystal Palace +11.95%  (My Price 2.70, Actual Price 4.00)

Some of those prices may look way out of line and in truth they are, however that’s exactly the sort of bets we should be looking for. Over 3.50 Goals offers us the largest amount of ‘value’, however for the sake of 0.1% I feel the better option is to back Over 2.50 Goals. On a side note Both Teams To Score YES actually offers some value in this match, I make it a 1.91 shot but there was some 1.95 available.

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Back Over 2.50 Goals at 2.15 –

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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Leicester v Burnley” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Leicester were brought back down to earth with a bump last weekend when they were defeated at Crystal Palace. Whilst Burnley continued their goal drought, they now haven’t scored a goal since the 14th minute of the season. I have their goal expectancy for this match at 0.697269, I don’t think I’ve seen on that low before. I have Leicester with a goal expectancy of 1.590445, with those numbers Leicester are value, I make them a 1.69 shot however 1.87 is available.

As you’s expect all the value in this match lies with the Unders on the Total Goals markets. This is repeated in the Correct Score markets where 0-0, 1-0, 2-0 and 3-0 are the only scores that I have highlighted as green. However It’s one of my favourite bets that tops the ‘perceived edge’ list, coming in at +11.97% is Both Teams To Score No. The No side of that market is priced up at 1.91, however I have it down as a 1.55 shot.

The merits of both teams not scoring as opposed to the Leicester back being the best bet are clear, Burnley clearly struggle to score whilst they have kept three clean sheets. It won’t be easy for Leicester to score in this match and I think that Burnley would be happy with a point away from home. However if Leicester do take the lead, it doesn’t appear that Burnley have the firepower to score, even against a side that concede more shots than anybody else. The other side of that coin is that Burnley taking the lead could very well see Leicester struggling to break down the visitors.

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Back Both Teams To Score No at 1.91 –

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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Liverpool v West Brom” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

After last seasons well deserved fluke, Liverpool are regressing back to the side that they were previously. Without their star man Luis Suarez, they just appear to be an average mid table side. Therefore they should be priced up like one, their defence was poor last season and they done nothing to particularly improve it over the summer. When you add to that the loss of their attacking prowess and the extra games they’ll need to play this season, they look like a team that have to be taken on.

West Brom haven’t been great this season, but back to back wins give the impression that the new manager is starting to get his message across. I have Goal Expectancies of;

  • Liverpool 1.387688
  • West Brom 1.236271

Those numbers give match odds of Liverpool 2.47, Draw 4.75, West Brom 2.99. Those odds may look crazy, but if Liverpool are now just an average team then they are plausible. I’m trying to base my price on what has happened on the pitch this season, however if you want to look at history then… Prior to last season, Liverpool only won 15 of their previous 38 league home games. On that run, how much money would you have lost backing them at 1.4x week in week out.

My numbers have Liverpool at -26.25% in terms of value, so they are screaming out to be taken on.

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Lay Liverpool at 1.50 – Betfair
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Sunderland v Stoke” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

This is the game that will be last on Match of the Day, with Goal Expectancies of Sunderland 0.943657 v 0.867154 Stoke. The chances of this game being 0-0 are 16.35% in my book or odds of 6.11, so the 8.50 available on that scoreline is ‘value’. The draw also offers value, I have it priced up at 3.05, but 3.30 is available.

My best bets for this match however revolve around the Both Teams To Score and Total Goals Markets, below is how I’ve priced them up, perceived edge and actual prices;

  • Under 1.50 Goals +9.59% (My Price 2.17, Actual Price 2.75)
  • Under 2.50 Goals +10.27% (My Price 1.37, Actual Price 1.60)
  • Under 3.50 Goals +6.96% (My Price 1.12, Actual Price 1.22)
  • Both Teams To Score No +10.64% (My Price 1.51, Actual Price 1.80)

With 0-0, 1-0, 2-0, 0-1 and 0-2 down as value scores in my book, I wanted to avoid the Under 1.50 goals bet. Backing Both Teams To Score No, looks to be the sensible play in this match.

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Back Both Teams To Score No at 1.80 –  
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Swansea v Newcastle” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Newcastle are truly awful, they’re so wasteful in front of goal. They are currently getting 21% of their shots on target, which simply isn’t enough. Despite Swansea’s strong start to the season, they are struggling to create chances, with only 8.83 shots per match so far. They have managed to get 41% of those shots on target, however it’s very unlikely that they’ll be able to keep it that high throughout the season.

In terms of the Total Goals markets for this game, they all look spot on, with the exception of Over 3.50 Goals, that however only offers +0.17% difference in my odds compared to what is available, therefore it’s a bet that I’d leave alone.

The bets bet on the numbers is Both Teams To Score No, I had it priced up at 1.68 however 2.00 is available. That gives a perceived ‘edge’ of 9.18%. A lot of that price is based on the idea of Newcastle not scoring, 2-0 and 3-0 are the value correct scorelines. Swansea also offer a 6.92% edge as I have them priced up at 1.69, however 1.92 is available.

I however have no faith in Newcastle scoring, Papa Cisse is their only real threat on what they’ve shown this season, if he’s having an off day you really do have to wonder where the goals will come from.

[symple_box color=”green” text_align=”center” width=”100%” float=”none”]
Back Both Teams To Score No at 2.00 – Paddy Power
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