Premier League 5th October 2014

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Chelsea v Arsenal” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Chelsea and Arsenal sit 1st and 3rd in shot creation this season, however Chelsea’s advantage is due to them having a higher % of Shots On Target and a Shot on target to Goal %. Arsenal also concede a higher % of Shots on Target, therefore theoretically increasing the number of goals they’ll concede.


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The table, left, shows Goal Expectancies of Chelsea 2.198398 v 1.388809 Arsenal. Using those expectancies we get Match Odds of;

  • Chelsea 1.79
  • Draw 4.80
  • Away 4.23

Opposing Chelsea in the match does offer some value, however the biggest ‘edges’ to be had are on the Over X Goal Lines. Over 3.50 Goals offer the largest advantage on my workings, however I prefer to take the Over 2.50 Goals, the difference is 1% but obviously it’s less risk.

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Back Over 2.50 Goals at 1.80 – Bet Victor

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Tottenham v Southampton” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Southampton have more shots than Tottenham, they concede less shots than Tottenham and they have a higher % of Shots On Target compared to Tottenham. Southampton’s Shot on Target % is 46.15%, which is too high for them to sustain all season. I admit that my Goal Expectancy for Southampton may be artificially high due to them over achieving with Shots On Target, but even if I adjusted them down by 20% they still offer value.

Without the downgrade of Southampton I have Goal Expectancies of Tottenham 1.044101 v 1.388818 Southampton. That has produced the below table of what I feel the odds should be.


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I don’t see any reason to believe that Tottenham should be a priced up in the 2.2x range here, on what we’ve seen so far this season Southampton should be favourites.

With 0-0 offering ‘value’, along with the Unders Goal Lines also highlighted green I think that it’s worth covering the draw as well as Southampton in this match. The case to get some draw cover is further enhanced by the belief that Southampton cannot continue to have 46.15% of their shots hit the target.

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Lay Tottenham at 2.22 – Betfair

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”West Ham v QPR” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

For me this game is all about QPR’s inability to defend of control the midfield, they were awful at Tottenham and Manchester United and if they play half as badly as that again then they’ll concede goals today. According to reports they put in a much improved performance at Southampton last weekend, however they still conceded 19 shots, with 9 of those being on target.

The goal expectancies for this match are West Ham 2.048777 v 1.03532 QPR, those numbers highlight the value is with;


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  • West Ham
  • 3-0, 3-1 and 3-2 Correct Scores   
  • The Overs side of the Goal Lines 
  • Both Teams To Score No

My favourite bet has to be Over 2.50 Goals, I feel that West Ham will score at least two goals and it’s highlighted as value according to my numbers.

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Back Over 2.50 Goals at 2.05 – Bet Victor

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