Aston Villa v Southampton

Goal Expectancies

Aston Villa 0.48 v 1.63 Southampton

If there was a match which involved the highest scorers in the league vs the team that conceded the most many would say that ‘goals are guaranteed’, ‘it’s free money’ etc etc… That is due to the misguided belief that goals are common in football, if we take last season for example then a goal was scored every 32.49 minutes on average. If you take stoppage time into account then that time increases. So football isn’t the end to end, goal every 10-15 minute game that a lot of people seem to think it is.

Looking at tonight’s game from a goal expectancy and a value point of view, there is a massive unders and Both Teams To Score No trend. If the same trends indicated goals people would have no objection to staking their money on Both Teams To Score Yes at 1.4x or Overs at 1.3x. When you tell them same people there’s a massive Both Teams To Score No trend and unders trend, they get scared to back it as it’s human nature to hope for the best. The bookmakers know this and that creates ‘value’.

I’m not going to say that Villa can’t score or that they won’t score or that this bet is free money, what I will say is that I have Aston Villa’s goal expectancy at 0.48. That says if this game was played 1000 times, I’d expect Villa to score 480 goals. The stats to back this belief up are;

  • Aston Villa have the fewest number of Shots per Game at 9.09
  • Aston Villa are 19th in the Shots For to Shot on Target Ratio at 24%
  • Aston Villa are 20th in Shot on Target to Goal For Ratio at 20.83%
  • Aston Villa are the lowest scorers, with 5 goals in 11 games (0.45 goals per game avg.)
  • 9 of Villa’s 11 games have ended Both Teams To Score NO, that’s 81%
  • Southampton have conceded the 2nd few shots in the league, 8.18 per game average
  • Southampton have the 2nd lowest Shots Against to Shot On Target Ratio at 26.67%
  • Southampton have the lowest Shot on Target Against to Goal Against Ratio in the league at 20.83%
  • Southampton have conceded the fewest number of goals, 5 in 11 games (0.45 per game)
  • 8 of Southampton’s 11 games have ended Both Teams To Score NO, that’s 72%

With all of that taken into account I have the below match odds;

  • Aston Villa 5.50
  • Draw 4.23
  • Southampton1.52

Southampton are 1.80 to win this game, which offers just over 10% of ‘value’ by my calculations. That would be my bet if there wasn’t something that offered even more theoretical ‘value’. That comes in the Both Teams To Score market, I have this priced at;

  • Yes 3.61
  • No 1.38

Therefore the 1.83 on offer for Both Teams To Score No, offers 17.69% of theoretical value. I’m not saying that this will win, but it’s worth remembering that if the ‘yes’ trend was as strong as the ‘no’ trend for this match then people wouldn’t be put off backing Both Teams To Score Yes at sub 1.5x.

I’m not saying this bet will win tonight, far from it, what I am saying is that if this game was played 1000 times then I think the Both Teams To Score No bet would land 723 times, whereas the odds suggest it would only happen 546 times from 1000 games. That doesn’t mean I’d back that outcome at 1.38, but I’d be happy to back it at anything over 1.60.

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From a correct score betting point of view all the value scorelines involve nil, 0-0, 0-1, 0-2 and 0-3. This backs up my belief that Both Teams To Score No is the value in the match, with a 1-0 victory for Southampton the most likely outcome.

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Back Both Teams To Score No at 1.83 –

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