Premier League 1st November 2014

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Arsenal v Burnley” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Goal Expectancies

Arsenal 1.84 v 0.80 Burnley

Burnley aren’t a very good side, that’s no secret and Arsenal haven’t exactly set the world alight. My match odds for this are telling me to take Arsenal on, so that’s what I’m going to do. However instead of laying them at 1.30 I prefer the look of Burnley with a 1.5 goal head start, that looks the ‘value’ call when priced up with my predicted match odds;

  • Arsenal 1.61
  • Draw 4.49
  • Burnley 6.28
arbu

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Obviously I’m not saying that Arsenal shouldn’t be heavy favourites, I wouldn’t want to back them at such a short price. In the correct score market I have 1-0 as the most likely outcome, I would have it priced up at 7.70, but 8.50 is available. The best value bet in the correct score market is the 1-1 draw, I have it priced up at 9.51 but 14.0 is available.

I also see Unders on all the goal lines as a value, with my preference for Under 2.50, Paddy Power go 2.62 on this outcome which I would have priced at 1.97.

I don’t fancy Burnley to win, but I can definitely see them making life difficult for Arsenal, especially if they can rediscover some of that early season defensive form. Therefore I’m backing them with a 1.50 goal start on the Asian Handicaps as I would have this nearer a 1.6x shot instead of 2.09.

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Back Burnley +1.50 Asian Handicap at 2.09 – Ladbrokes
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Chelsea v QPR” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Goal Expectancies

Chelsea 2.49 v 0.88 QPR

I think that QPR are awful and they can’t really deny it. However everything has it’s price and I would price this game up as;

  • Chelsea 1.38
  • Draw 6.09
  • QPR 8.91

Therefore Chelsea are of no interest to me in the win market at 1.18. The only way I could side with Chelsea in this match would be to back the 2-1, 3-1 or 3-2 correct scores as they are all value in my book.

chqu

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The Over/Under goal line markets all look to be set ‘correctly’ as is the Both Teams To Score market. The way I want to play this match is to side with QPR on the Asian Handicap market. They get a two goal start, so stakes will be returned if Chelsea beat them by only two goals. As we’ve seen many times with Jose Mourinho sides in the past 2-0 is a scoreline he is happy with. Chelsea have ‘only’ beaten the -2 handicap twice in the league this season, so for all their goals they aren’t winning 3-0+ every week.

With 2-0 priced up as the most likely score and Chelsea too short a price, I’m siding with QPR in the belief that they won’t be thrashed out of sight.

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Back QPR +2.00 Asian Handicap at 2.08 –
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Everton v Swansea” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Goal Expectancies

Everton 1.68 v 1.54 Swansea

Although Swansea have been on a run of poor form recently, I still feel that they are massively overpriced in this match. I honestly don’t see much difference between these two sides. Like most of the teams in this league they can all beat each other on their day, outside of the top 3 or 4 the rest look very ‘average’. So based on my goal expectancies I have this match priced up at;

  • Everton 2.43
  • Draw 4.28
  • Swansea 2.82

I think them prices are an accurate reflection of what these teams have shown so far this season and the ability of their players, so Swansea at 5.50 is my NAP this weekend.

evsw

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In the side markets I think that a 0-2 correct score, priced at 41.0 is the best value scoreline as I would have this at 21.0. I also like the look Overs in the goal line markets. As usual Both Teams To Score no offers some value, but with only at 1.7% perceived edge it’s nothing to get excited about.

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Back Swansea at 5.50 – Bet365 (NAP)
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Stoke v West Ham” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Goal Expectancies

Stoke 1.19 v 1.40 West Ham

I’ve sided with West Ham on the last two weekends and both times they’ve paid out. I see no reason to not back them here as my predicted match odds suggest they should be 10.73% shorter.

  • Stoke 3.15
  • Draw 3.80
  • West Ham 2.38
stwe

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When it comes to accuracy of shots Stoke are the worst in the league, with only 22.88% of shot’s hitting the target. 29.63% of them shots turn into goals, but around 30% is average, so they’re not scoring more than they should be. By contrast 33.33% of West Ham’s shots hit the target, with 40% of those ending up in the net. That 40% figure will probably come down during the season, but I don’t expect it to drop off a cliff and them end up with only 22% of SOTs becoming goals.

The Over/Under markets look like they are priced correctly so I wouldn’t advise getting involved in those. Both Teams To Score No does offer some ‘value’, I would have it priced at 1.86 however 2.05 is available. In the correct score market 0-2 offers the best value at 19.0, I would have this priced up at 13.55. However 1-1 is the most likely score, I believe that there is an 12% chance of that so it should be priced up at 8.02, however only 7.00 is available.

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Back West Ham at 3.20 –

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