Premier League 22nd November 2014

Goal Expectancies

Chelsea 2.04 v 1.01 West Brom

The general consensus is that Chelsea will ‘smash’ West Brom. There appears to be a belief that Chelsea are winning every single game by three or four goal margins. However they’ve only won two out of eleven by three or more goals, they are a side that are happy to win by two goals and save energy. I have priced the match up as;

  • Chelsea 1.63
  • Draw 4.77
  • West Brom 5.54

That suggests laying Chelsea at 1.2x would be value and I wouldn’t put anyone off doing that, however in these type of scenarios I’d much rather get involved in the Asian Handicap markets. It’s possible to back West Brom +1.75 (+1.5,+2.0) at 1.94. This means that if they get beaten by exactly two goals we get half our stake back. As the 2-1 and 3-2 home wins show up as value on my numbers, this is also a way of covering those outcomes.

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[symple_box color=”green” text_align=”center” width=”100%” float=”none”] Back West Brom Asian Handicap +1.75 (+1.5, +2.0) at 1.94 – Ladbrokes [/symple_box]

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Everton v West Ham” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Goal Expectancies

Everton 1.64 v 1.58 West Ham

The only reason that Everton are odds-on here is reputation. So far this season they’ve only won one of five home games and they currently sit six places and four points below West Ham. I’m not expecting West Ham to finish 3rd in the league, I don’t even think they’ll finish in the top eight, but until they start playing poorly and my numbers show them as not being value I’m going to continue to side with them. I believe that the match odds should be;

  • Everton 2.53
  • Draw 4.23
  • West Ham 2.70
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Despite the stereotype of Sam Allardyce’s teams playing boring and negative football, they actually have the 2nd best attack on the road this season with an average of 2.20 goals per game. Everton also have the worst home defence in the league, conceding an average of 2.20 goals per game. If that trend continues then we should not only see some goals, all the overs lines are value, but we could see a ‘shock’ result. Well a shock according to the odds anyway.

With 2-2 and 3-3 scorlines showing as good betting opportunities I want to cover these outcomes. West Ham are the value call at 4.50 however they can be backed at 2.40 with a +0.25 (0,+0.5) start on the Asian Handicap markets. This means that if the game ends a draw, half our stake is returned and the other half is a winner.

[symple_box color=”green” text_align=”center” width=”100%” float=”none”] Back West Ham +0.25 (0,+0.5) Asian Handicap at 2.40 –

[/symple_box] [symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Manchester City v Swansea” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Goal Expectancies

Man City 1.56 v 1.13 Swansea

If Swansea could keep eleven men on the pitch they’d probably be ahead on Manchester City. Despite them seemingly getting a man sent off in every match they are still 5th in the league. Manchester City have been below the form they’ve shown in the last three seasons and the decision to weaken their attacking options in the summer has harmed them.

Manchester City have failed to score more than two goals against a side in the top half this season, so and expectancy for them to score 1.56 goals and a supremacy of 0.43 goals. I have priced this match up as;

  • Man City 2.12
  • Draw 3.96
  • Swansea 3.61
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I want to side with Swansea in this and am happy to take them on the +1.25 (+1,+1.5) Asian Handicap. They’ll need to keep eleven players on the pitch to have a chance. With Manchester City facing Bayern Munich on Tuesday they’ll be looking to get this done quickly so they can rest some players. I’m sure Swansea will be aware of this and I expect to see them put up a solid defensive performance, similar to what they did at Everton, where they restricted the hosts to only three shots on target.

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Back Swansea +1.25 (+1,+1.50) Asian Handicap at 2.05 (NAP) –

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