Premier League 23rd November 2014

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Crystal Palace v Liverpool” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Goal Expectancies

Crystal Palace 1.41 v 1.44 Liverpool

Liverpool’s conversion rate in front of goal this season is a long way below what it was last year. In fact it’s below what Palace are showing this season. Liverpool are getting 32.72% of their shots on target, however only 26.42% of these are finding the net, only Aston Villa and Burnley have a lower percentage.

So despite the fact that Palace can’t really defend anymore, Liverpool still shouldn’t be odds-on to win this game of football. Liverpool are more likely to score one goal than two and my goal expectancies for this match have given the below predicted odds;

  • Palace 2.71
  • Draw 3.98
  • Liverpool 2.62
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A lay of Liverpool at 1.9x is a good bet here, as would be the back of Palace at 4.33. However due to the green on the 2-2 and 3-3 score lines, and the draw being yellow, I want something in between. Therefore I’m siding with Palace on a +0.25 (0,+0.5) Asian Handicap.

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Back Crystal Palace +0.25 (0,+0.5) Asian Handicap at 2.40 –
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Hull v Tottenham” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Goal Expectancies

Hull 1.42 v 1.22 Tottenham

Much like Liverpool, Tottenham are wasteful in front of goal when compared to the rest of the league. However 5%  more of their shot on target end up as goals when compared to Liverpool, they do however have two shots a game less.

Hull are more clinical when it comes to goal scoring, they create less chances but put a higher percentage away. That’s what they have the same goal difference as Spurs.

Looking at both these sides records this season, I think that my odds from my goal expectancies give an accurate reflection of each teams chances;

  • Hull 2.41
  • Draw 3.83
  • Tottenham 3.07
Click To View

Click To View

With Spurs being away from home and their lack of a cutting edge up front I want to be against them this afternoon. Therefore much like the early kick-off I’m siding with the hosts on a +0.25 (0,+0.5) Asian Handicap.

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Back Hull +0.25 (0,+0.5) Asian Handicap at 2.06 –
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