Premier League 29th November 2014

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”West Brom v Arsenal” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Goal Expectancies

West Brom 1.24 v 1.44 Arsenal

Arsenal got a good result in midweek, depending on how highly you rate the hipsters favourite team. I personally don’t rate them or The Bundasliga that highly. Anyhow that’s the Champions League and this is The Premier League, where Arsenal have lost their last two games. The issue they seem to have is that they concede too many goals, as a percentage, from shots on target against. Currently 37.5% of Shot on Target Against Arsenal find the back of the net, only four teams have a worse number. They do however concede fewer shots than any team in the league, so that goes a long way to compensating that high percentage.

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Results show that they have conceded and average of 1.17 goals per game away from home, which makes them 2nd best in the league on that front. However three of those games were against Sunderland, Villa and Leicester, I expect West Brom to finish above those three side. When they have travelled to top half sides, Chelsea, Swansea and Everton, they have concede two goals on each occasion. West Brom aren’t as good as those sides, but they are good enough for a goal expectancy of 1.24. That goal expectancy gives them a 35.83% chance of scoring exactly one goal. If they had a one goal head-start would you back Arsenal at odds-on to win the match?

My match odds for this are;

  • West Brom 4.60
  • Draw 3.80
  • Arsenal 2.40

West Brom can be backed at 2.09 on a +0.50 Asian Handicap, that gives you the draw and the win, so the same as laying Arsenal. I personally would of set the +0.25 (0,+0.50) line at 2.05 with the +0.50 line at around the 1.7x mark. Arsenal may very well win but at the odds I’d much rather side with West Brom. Coincidently Arsenal beat every side that finished below 9th last season apart from West Brom, where they drew 1-1. My numbers have that scoreline as the most likely again, I give it a 12.22% chance, which equates to odds of 8.18 (just over 7/1).

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Back West Brom +0.50 Asian Handicap at 2.09 –
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Liverpool v Stoke” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Goal Expectancies 

Liverpool 1.42 v 1.19 Stoke

I mentioned last weekend, not for the first time this season, that Liverpool’s issue this season is that they are unable to convert chances. They got worse last weekend, when they stopped being able to create chances after the 88th second of the match. To make matters worse for them 38% of the shots they concede end up on target, with 36% of those ending up in the back of the net. Last season they were able to counteract the fact they conceded too many goals by creating more and converting more chances. This season they don’t have Suarez and Sturridge, so it’s been left to Rickie Lambert and Balotelli to find over 50 goals between them. They’re just not good enough to do that.

With the above goal expectancies I have the below match odds;

  • Liverpool 2.37
  • Draw 3.81
  • Stoke 3.16
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I think it’s hard to argue that Liverpool price is nearer the mark that they should be when compared to the 1.73 on offer at the bookmakers, based on everything they’ve shown this season. At those odds and with my goal expectancies I would set the Asian Handicap line on Stoke at +0.25 (0, +0.50) at around the even money (2.00) mark. As it stands, we are able to back Stoke at +0.75 (+0.5, +1.0) on the Asian Handicap market at 2.00. This means that if Stoke lose by exactly one goal we get half of our stake back, Liverpool have won by two or more goals once this season.

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Back Stoke +0.75 (+0.50, +1.0) Asian Handicap at 2.00 –
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Manchester United v Hull” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Goal Expectancies

Man Utd 1.60 v 1.14 Hull

Manchester United won at Arsenal last weekend, ending Arsenals 23 game unbeaten Premier League run at The Emirates Stadium. They were thankful for David De Gae’s Man of the Match performance, as without his saves keeping them in the game they could have been embarrassed.

Hull faced Tottenham last weekend and had to play the entire 2nd half with ten men, due to more inept refereeing. They were finally beaten by Christian Eriksens’ last minute winner. That performance, despite being gritty, still didn’t convince me that Hull weren’t a good bet for relegation at 4.00, so I added that to my book. The thinking behind that bet is that they are currently conceding more shots per game than any team in the league, if they don’t improve on that then they will go very close to going down.

Saying all of that though I still don’t see Manchester United as a 1.33 shot in this match, for them to be that price I’d want them to have a goal expectancy that gave them a supremacy of over 2.00 goals. I just can’t have Manchester United with a supremacy that high at the moment, due to a combination of their makeshift defence and inconsistent attack, therefore I trust my goal expectancy calculations for this match. My match odds are;

  • Man Utd 2.08
  • Draw 4.02
  • Hull 3.69
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Manchester United might win this game, the should win this game however I don’t see them tearing Hull apart and I want to side with them on the +1.50 Asian Handicap line at 2.02. Taking that line on all sides who have visited Old Trafford this season, would have returned a profit. They have only managed to cover the 1.50 line once from six games and that was against QPR.

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Back Hull +1.50 Asian Handicap at 2.02 – Ladbrokes (NAP)
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Sunderland v Chelsea” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Goal Expectancies

Sunderland 1.02 v 1.87 Chelsea

Chelsea should be odds-on to win this, but 1.40 is a shocking price. That’s the sort of the price which may tempt me to back them at Stamford Bridge, not away from home in the Premier League.

I have priced this match at;

  • Sunderland 4.90
  • Draw 4.40
  • Chelsea 1.75

I would back Sunderland +1.00 in the Asian Handicap market at 2.00, however the market is offering 2.02 on +1.25 which is even better for me. That line means that I’ll still profit if/when Chelsea only win by one goal.

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We could spend all day talking about the strengths and weakness of these sides, but for me it’s simple 1.40 on a side away from home at this level isn’t value and has to be taken on in someway.

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Back Sunderland +1.25 (+1, +1.5) Asian Handicap at 2.04 –
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