Premier League 8th November 2014

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Burnley v Hull” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Goal Expectancies

Burnley 0.95 v 1.51 Hull

A few weeks ago I tweeted that Hull would be value when they faced Burnley this weekend. So I ran the number and my predicted match odds are;

  • Burnley 4.20
  • Draw 3.85
  • Hull 1.98

That means if you can get on 3.10 at Boylesports you’ll be getting 18% of theoretical value. I can’t bet with Boylesports however I am happy to take anything over 2.50 on an away victory.

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What I really don’t understand about this game is, how can Burnley be favourites? The haven’t won this season, they average 0.50 goals per game and concede an average of two per game. However they’ve been given a 38% chance of winning today, for a team that I feel will win less than 8 games all season, it looks a short price.

Nothing appeals in the Goal-line markets and as you’d expect Both Teams To Score No offers some value at 2.00. The 0-2 Correct Score also appears to be an excellent bet at 18.0, I have it priced up at 10.3, therefore the ‘edge’ is +4.14%.

However an away win offers the greatest amount of value in this match, so a Hull victory is my NAP today.

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Back Hull at 3.00 (NAP) –
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Manchester United v Crystal Palace” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Goal Expectancies

Man Utd 1.87 v 1.30 Crystal Palace

I’m a Crystal Palace fan and at the moment we look rudderless, from a promising start this season we now have our best players either out of position or on the bench. However we are scoring more goals, so that should keep the hipsters who think you need a 20 goals a season striker and the rest of the team to chip in with another 40 to stay up. The simple fact is that 38 0-0 draws will more than likely keep you in this league and at the moment we’re playing like a side that will score two but concede three. Not hard to see that 76 goals for and 114 against will probably see you relegated.

However now I’ve finished ranting, I can go back to the betting. Despite Palace being awful, Manchester United aren’t much better. I’ve heard people saying that their 1-0 defeat at Man City was an excellent result and they only conceded one shot on goal. When put into context this is the same Manchester City side that toiled against Villa for 80+ minutes, were beaten by West Ham and took one point from two games against CSKA Moscow. My odds suggest that this game will be much closer that the available prices suggest;

  • Man Utd 1.97
  • Draw 4.38
  • Palace 3.76
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At the prices I have to take on Man Utd, however Palace’s ability to concede from every set piece puts me of the lay of the home side at 1.3x. Instead I’m going to turn to backing Palace in the Asian Handicap markets, they are 1.95 with 1.50 goals start so the bet’s a winner if they only lose by one goal. I would make it nearer 3.00 for Manchester United to win by two or more goals, which is something they’ve only managed to do once this season and I don’t think Palace are as bad as QPR.

In the correct score market I would have 1-1 favourite, however the value scoreline is 1-2, I priced it up at 15.0 but 36.0 is available. The goal-line markets all look too tight to get involved in. For all of you Both Teams To Score Yes backers, today is one of the few times yes is actually value. Admittedly it’s not a lot of value, I have it priced at 2.01 and 2.10 is available, but it does offer you +2.06%.

Despite my negative thoughts about my own club, I’ve put them to the back of my mind and looked clearly at the numbers.

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Back Crystal Palace +1.50 Asian Handicap –
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Southampton v Leicester” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Goal Expectancies

Southampton 1.97 v 0.71 Leicester

Leicester appear to have peaked with that win over Manchester United and much like after Cardiff beat Manchester City last season the only way appears to be down. I very much doubt we’ll be seeing any of the 7/1 on relegation again before May. The goals have dried up, however they are still capable of putting in a decent defensive performance, so it’s not all doom and gloom.

Southampton are going along nicely, but even they know they won’t be winning the league. Unfortunately as they are a fashionable side  adored by Shoreditch types wearing Dortmund Shirt and waving St. Pauli flags they almost always get kept on the bookies side. I have the below predicted match odds;

  • Southampton 1.47
  • Draw 4.80
  • Leicester 7.89

The only ‘value’ in those odds is the Leicester win, which is available at 8.50, however that only offers an edge of 0.89% so not a bet that interest me.

sole

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From the above chart, this game looks set to be a low scoring affair. Southampton only concede an average of 8.50 shots per game, with 28% of those being on target, with only 20% of those finding the back of the net. The value correct scores are 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 and 0-2, with unders on all the goal-lines also flagging up as value. The common theme would appear to be nil and with that brings in one of my favourite bets, Both Teams To Score No. I have this priced up at 1.57, however 2.00 is available. 

The stats to backup the selection are;

  • Both Teams To Score No has won in 70% (7/10) Southampton league games this season
  • Both Teams To Score No has won in all of Leicester’s away  league games this season
  • Both Teams To Score No has won in 60% (6/10) of Leicester’s league games this season

Most importantly however for me is that my calculations say it’s value.

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Back Both Teams To Score No at 2.00 – Paddy Power
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