Southampton v Manchester City

Goal Expectancies

Southampton 1.62 v 1.08 Man City

Man City have toiled away this year, they’re not scoring as many as last season and they’re conceding more. Points dropped at QPR and West Ham, plus and unconvincing performance away to Aston Villa have highlighted their failures to reinforce in the summer. Southampton come into this on the back of a draw at Aston Villa, they played their normal game on Monday night and would have won if it wasn’t for a goal keeping error.

Southampton like to restrict the amount of shots teams have, it’s standard logic, the less shots a team have against you the less likely they are to score. Therefore the key to this match will be keeping Sergio Aguero quite, if they manage that then I expect Southampton to get at least a point.

My predicted match odds looked way out, so I went over them again and again, just to make sure that I hadn’t made an input error.

  • Southampton 2.00
  • Draw 4.04
  • Man City 3.95

The reason that Southampton are so ‘short’ compared to the bookies is due to them not conceding goals, in a game where goals are a rare occurrence and with home advantage, that has pushed Man City’s goal expectancy down.

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The general expectation for these two sides is that Southampton will implode and finish somewhere between 7th and 12th, whilst Manchester City will improve to become challengers to Chelsea. However until there are signs that that is happening, I’m happy to continue siding with Southampton.

There are a number of way to play this from a betting angle, backing Southampton, laying Man City but  I’m taking Southampton at 0 on the Asian Handicaps. This means that if it’s a draw then I get my stake back. My feeling is that Southampton will score and I’m more confident of that happening than Man City finding the net. If Southampton do score then Man City need to fins two goals for the bet to lose.

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Back Southampton 0 Asian Handicap at 2.22 –
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