Manchester United v Stoke

Goal Expectancies

Man Utd 1.60 v 1.00 Stoke

Manchester United are turning the corner, three straight wins and their only defeat in eight games came at Manchester City. However it could be a false dawn, they’ve already risen to 4th once this season before dropping to 10th.

Man Utd league On the last occasion they rose to 4th, they drew their next two games against West Brom and Chelsea, before that defeat to Manchester City.

Those three games are obviously tougher than facing Stoke at home, but I feel the value is with the visitors.

Although Stoke have lost their last two vs Liverpool and Burnley, they have already shown they are capable of getting results on the road. They’ve won at Manchester City and Tottenham, plus a late 1-0 defeat at Liverpool and a 1-0 lose at Southampton should give them hope here.

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On the Asian Handicap market Manchester United have to give away a 1.25 goal (-1,-1.5) start. That means than they will need to win by two goals for that bet to win. I would rather take Stoke on the positive side of that line, meaning that a one goal defeat for the away side would result in half of the stake being returned and a profit from the other half.

Until I’m sold on Manchester United completely turning the corner and we have some data to back that up then I’m happy to oppose them in the handicap markets, especially against a side who have already show that they are occasionally capable on the road.

From a correct score point of view I have a 1-0 home victory as favourite, closely followed by 1-1. Home victories of 2-1 and 3-2 have flagged up as yellow on my numbers, which means they should be taken into consideration.

With my look at correct scores and goal expectancies, I feel that Stoke can and will score this evening, which leaves Manchester United needing three goals for the Asian Handicap bet to lose, at 87p in the pound I’m prepared to bet they won’t.

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Back Stoke +1.25 (+1,+1.5) Asian Handicap at 1.87 –
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