Premier League 1st January 2015

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Stoke City v Manchester United” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Goal Expectancies

Stoke 1.26 v 1.25 Man Utd

Manchester United at short odds away from home isn’t for me. They’ve won two away games this season, yes they were at Arsenal and Southampton but many will agree they didn’t deserve to win either. I’ve mentioned a few times recently that run of six wins, they were converting a ridiculous high number of their shots on targets into goals and it wasn’t possible for them to keep it up. This was evident against Tottenham on Sunday, they were all guns blazing in the first half but could get the goal, that was then followed by a lack-luster performance in the second half. Stoke aren’t going to give them a break and I don’t see Manchester United scoring the two goals they’ll likely need to win this.

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The Total Goals Over/Unders markets look near enough correct to me, therefore I won’t be betting in those markets. From a correct score point of view I make 1-1 the most likely score and would price it at 7.83. The bookmakers also think this is the most likely outcome and they have priced it up at 7.50. The ‘value’ correct score in the match is a 2-0 victory for Stoke City. I give this a 6.42% of happening, which means it should be priced at 15.56, however 26 (25/1) is available.

The biggest value bet in the match however is to oppose Manchester United. I have them priced up at 2.75, which we could probably lower due to their current form, but not enough to make the 2.00 favourites. I don’t see them winning this match-up 50% of the time, so the play is to either lay them on Betfair or oppose them on the +0.50 Asian Handicap at 1.90, which is the same thing without the commission payments.

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Back Stoke City +0.50 Asian Handicap at 1.90 –
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Liverpool v Leicester City” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Goal Expectancies

Liverpool 1.45 v 0.83 Leicester

I must have missed the news about Liverpool resigning Luis Suarez, it must have happened because the markets believe that Liverpool are now a major goal scoring force again. Up until Monday night their goal scoring record at Anfailed this season read like an inconsistent all-weather horses’ form, 201201102. For those of you who don’t read horse form, that’s nine goals in nine game (before Monday night), hardly something to inspire confidence if you’re backing Overs. Monday’s 4-1 victory over Swansea could be a turning point for them or it could be a ‘blip’ that occurred because of poor defending, own goals and luck. For the time being, I’m going to say it was a ‘freak’ result and I expect the low scoring to continue, until Daniel Sturridge returns or they sign a striker.

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I really like the look of the under Total Goals bets in this, with preference going to the under 2.50 line at 2.40. To add some weight to that argument only five of ten Liverpool home games have ended in Over 2.50 goals this season. Looking at Leicester’s away form, they average 0.50 goals on the road, having failed to score in six of their ten road trips, with eight of those ten games ending in under 2.50 goals.

The stats all point to this being a low scoring match-up. I have under 2.50 goals priced up at 1.66, with the market priced at 2.40 I’m in theory getting 18.45% of value. I have given Leicester at 43.59% chance of not scoring. If Leicester fail to score do you fancy Liverpool to score three goals? Bear in mind Leicester have only shipped 3+ once on the road this season and Liverpool have only score 3+ once at home.

I think that a 1-0 Liverpool victory is the most likely correct score and I’ve priced that at 6.74, however the bookmakers are offering 9.00 (8/1), therefore that would be a ‘value’ bet. The greatest value in the correct score market is a 0-1 victory for Leicester, this is priced at 29 but I make it an 11.78 shot. 0-0 and 1-1 are also appealing, however for me the easiest and best bet is simply to back under 2.50 goals.

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Back Under 2.50 Goals at 2.40 (NAP) –
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Manchester City v Sunderland” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Goal Expectancies

Man City 1.80 v 0.75 Sunderland

There’s a feeling that Manchester City have been ‘getting away with it’ in recent weeks. Their lack of signing a striker in the summer and letting Negredo go, was masked by a nine game winning run in all competitions. I opposed them with a Burnley +2.25 bet on Sunday and the lack of squad depth in attacking areas appeared to catch up with them in the second half as they blew a two goal lead to draw 2-2 and land my bet. Coming into this game they have doubts over Vincent Kompany and YaYa Toure. Add to into that Dzeko and Aguero missing and that’s the whole spine of their team out. It looks to be another match were they should be opposed on the Asian Handicap market.

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Sunderland are 1.83 in the +2 Asian Handicap market and that looks to be the play to me. If Manchester City win by two clear goals then stakes will be returned, if Man City only win by one goal then the bet’s a winner as it will be if Sunderland win or draw.

Looking at Manchester City’s home games so far this season only two of the nine would have resulted in losing money when backing the away side +2. Other than Sunderland’s freak 8-0 defeat at Southampton earlier in the season, they have been pretty solid away from home. They’ve drawn won two, drawn five and lost one.

There is value in backing Manchester City, if you take them to win 1-0 or 2-1, however there’s a lot more value on the draws or Sunderland results. It wouldn’t surprise me if this match ended in a draw, I particularly like the 1-1 scoreline from a betting point of view at 16 (15/1).

However the safest and best way to play in this match is to back Sunderland +2 in the Asian Handicap markets at 1.83.

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Back Sunderland +2 Asian Handicap at 1.83 –
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Southampton v Arsenal” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Goal Expectancies

Southampton 1.69 v 1.10 Arsenal

We’re halfway through the season and Southampton are still in the top four and still ahead of Arsenal. No more can the question of “who have they played?” be asked as they have now played everybody once. However the market still doesn’t appear to respect them. I would have them favourites for this match, yet we are able to back them at 3.00 (2/1). It’s even possible to back them at odd-against 2.10 of a 0 Asian Handicap, which is effectively Draw No Bet.

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Morgan Schneiderlin is out for Southampton due to suspension and Nathaniel Clyne is an injury doubt. Those two players will be a miss and that’s the reason I’m not backing Southampton in the 1×2 match odds market. I would much rather get my stake back if the game ends as a draw, and as I have 1-1 as my most likely scoreline I think that’s the sensible approach.

There isn’t much more to add really. I think this game is simple and there is one question to answer. If it’s halfway through the season and two teams are level on points, should the home team be odds-against draw no bet?  (0 Asian Handicap)

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Back Southampton 0 Asian Handicap at 2.11 –
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”West Ham v West Brom” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Goal Expectancies

West Ham 1.58 v 0.83 West Brom

It’s halfway through he season and West Ham sit 6th in the league on 31 points. However some of the natives are getting restless. The Peggy Mitchell’s and Frank Butcher’s of this world are angered by the ‘long-ball’ game that has returned since Andy Carroll has returned to the starting XI. Apparently, despite winning, the performances are poor and not good enough for the ‘West Ham way’.

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So with the home side’s supporters saying that they are awful and bored and the away side just being awful, there is surely only one way to play this match; Both Teams To Score NO!

West Brom have already failed to score in five of nine road trips this season, with seven of the nine games ending in Both Teams To Score No. West Ham have only kept four clean sheets from ten home games this season, with five from ten ending in Both Teams To Score No. However if the home fans are correct with their grumbling, then we’ll start to see both of those numbers increase, potentially back to last seasons levels.

This really does look like an uninspiring New Years Day game, the sort of game where the first team to score go on to win to nil. I actually think that West Ham will score first and see the game out, possibly 1-0 or 2-0 which are both ‘value’ scorelines. However the bet for me is Both Teams To Score no as I think it wins nearer 60% or the time then it does 50%.

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Back Both Teams To Score No at 2.00 –
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[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Tottenham v Chelsea” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Goal Expectancies

Tottenham 1.12 v 1.44 Chelsea

Chelsea at odds-on away from home against a side who will probably finish 6th? That doesn’t look right to me, and my numbers back it up. Chelsea deserve to be favourites, but I’d have them nearer 2.25. Chelsea have already played ten away games this season, but have only won five of them. They also already failed to win at odds-on away from home three times this season.

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On their travels this season Chelsea have ‘only’ won by more than one goal on three occasions. We are able to get half our stake back if we back Tottenham on the +0.75 (+0.5, +1) Asian Handicap and they only lose by one goal. Obviously with that bet we would have a  winner if Tottenham avoided defeat.

I like that bet as I have 1-1 down as the most likely score, followed by a 0-1 Chelsea victory. The value scores, stack up on the Tottenham side, however I can’t trust them with and outright back or lower Asian Handicap line.

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Back Tottenham +0.75 (+0.5, +1) Asian Handicap at 1.90 –
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Of the above bets, my three best ones are;

  • Liverpool v Leicester Under 2.50 Goals
  • Sunderland +2 Asian Handicap
  • Southampton 0 Asian Handicap

The Treble on those bets pays 9.14 (8/1+) with Bet Victor

Cherry Analysts

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