Premier League 17th January 2015

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Goal Expectancy

QPR 1.34 v 1.35 Man Utd

Manchester United have shown nothing away from home this season, as I mentioned before the Stoke match, I felt they we lucky in their victories at Arsenal and Southampton. Other than than those two victories they have failed at odds-on in all seven of their away matches where they’ve started below 2.00 (Evens). I personally put a lot of their issues away from home down to their inability to create clear goal scoring opportunities. Away from home the are distinctly average in this department;

  • They average 11 shots per away game (11th in the league on that stat)
  • 35.45% of their shots are on target (3rd in the league)
  • 30.77% of shots on target find the back of the net (9th in the league)

If those statistics were to continue throughout the season then Manchester United would end up averaging 1.19 goals per away game. That would give them a total of 22 goals on the road at the end of the season, which would be the lowest they’ve achieved in the Premier League era.

The flip side to that is that not scoring goals, or averaging around one goal per game is fine if you don’t concede goals. Manchester United are currently conceding at around 1.3 goals per game, so to win an away match they need to score at least two goals. This fact is highlighted by both their away victories being 2-1 scorelines and the large number of draws that they’ve had, six from ten games.

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Manchester United’s saving grace this weekend may be the fact that they are up against QPR, who despite looking strong at home this season, still concede plenty of goals. However I’m of the opinion that they will score against Man Utd and therefore I have to side with them in the Asian Handicap markets.

QPR are receiving a full goal, at home! That means they need to be beaten by two clear goals for this bet to lose. The West Londoners have only lost two at home all season and they were both by a single goal margin. Manchester United haven’t won by two clear goals away from home this season.

In fact from the 210 games played so far in 2014/15 only 22 have resulted in the away side winning by two or more goals. Add into that the fact of 33 games so far where an away side has been odds-on,with less than half of those winning (14) then you can see that backing odds-on shots away from home in the Premier League will lose you money in the long run.

There have been 19 odds-on shots turned over so far this season and that number increase if you were to look at the at the amount of odds-on away side who have failed to cover their handicap line.

I have 1-1 as the most likely scoreline in this match and it looks t be a value bet. The greatest value in the correct score market would appear to be a 1-0 home victory, priced at 19.0 (18/1). However I’m happy to just take the safer option of backing QPR +1 Asian Handicap at 1.80 (4/5).

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Back QPR +1 Asian Handicap at 1.80 –

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