Premier League 10th February 2015

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Arsenal v Leicester City” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Goal Expectancy

Arsenal 2.02 v 0.63 Leicester

This game is all about Arsenal and whether they can keep a clean sheet.

Leicester were poor on Saturday in a 1-0 home defeat by Crystal Palace, in another game where they failed to take their chances. They now travel to a side who only concede 8.64 shots per home game. The fact that Arsenal don’t concede many shots and Leicester can only average 8.75 shots per game on the road, doesn’t bode well. Their chances are further diminished by their inability to score goals when they do manage to shoot, with only 25.81% of Shots on Target finding the back of the net. I have them down for 2.38 Shots on Target, so they will need to perform above average expectations to score.

ArsenalLeicester

Click To View

The low expectancy of Leicester scoring in the match makes Both Teams To Score No, the most attractive betting proposition. In taking that bet you are effectively saying that their is a 54.05% chance that Leicester won’t score. Both teams have failed to score in 42% of all Leicester City matches so far this season, that percentage increases to 67% in Leicester away games.

Leicester have failed to score in half of their away matches so far and I don’t see that changing tonight. A 2-0 victory for Arsenal appears to be the most likely result, while the best value correct score is a 1-0 home victory.

[symple_box color=”green” text_align=”center” width=”100%” float=”none”]
Back Both Teams To Score No at 1.85 –
[/symple_box]

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Hull v Aston Villa” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Goal Expectancy

Hull 1.20 v 0.58 Aston Villa

The less said about this game the better to be honest. Aston Villa struggle to score goals and they are the only team to score less goals than Hull this season. Although Hull are almost 80% better in terms of goal scoring than Villa, that isn’t saying much.

A 1-0 home victory is the most likely score here and looks to offer the best value in that market, with 4.82% of theoretical value. The home win is priced at 2.40, which looks to be another value call. However as both of these sides are so poor in front of goal I wouldn’t completely write off Aston Villa or the 0-0 draw.

HullVilla

Click To View

The only bet I want to be involved in here is Both Teams To Score No, I genuinely believe that it should be a 1.4 shot. If their was a Both Teams To Score Yes trend as big as their is for the No trend here, that’s about the price we’d be seeing. Beyond that there isn’t much to get excited about and I don’t think too many will be looking for online streams of this match.

[symple_box color=”green” text_align=”center” width=”100%” float=”none”]
Back Both Teams To Score No at 1.70 –
[/symple_box]

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Liverpool v Tottenham” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Goal Expectancy

Liverpool 1.71 v 0.94 Tottenham

Liverpool have finally noticed that a clean sheet is worth the same as two goals, they’re now seeing the benefits of that with the current run they are on. What’s more impressive though is that they are still getting shots away despite the more cautious approach to their play. They sit 2nd in the shot creation table, what they need now is somebody who can put the ball in the net. Daniel Sturridge is the man for that, I have him down as improving Liverpool by around 15% when he returns, therefore I’ve had to do two sets of calculations for this match.

LiverpoolSpurs

Click To View

This table shows what that Liverpool don’t offer any value without Daniel Sturridge in tonight’s game.

Click To View

Click To View

If Daniel Sturridge does start tonight then Liverpool become a back-able price. However the thing to take from both sets of calculations is the green on the unders side of Total Goals markets and the green on the Both Teams To Score No market.

Both of these sides have done well to get into a position where they can now mount a challenge for a top four finish, so I would say that they would both be happy to take a 0-0 draw from this and move on, especially Tottenham who have an atrocious recent history against Liverpool.

If Liverpool take the lead, they have shown in recent weeks that they now have some defensive resolve. Whereas if Spurs take the lead it will enable them to drop deeper to try and nullify Sturridge and Sterling.

At 2.30 I have to side with the Both Teams To Score No bet here, as I don’t see both these sides ‘going for it’ and both sets of my calculations highlight it as value.

[symple_box color=”green” text_align=”center” width=”100%” float=”none”]
Back Both Teams To Score No at 2.30 –
[/symple_box]

Cherry Analysts

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *