Cheltenham Festival Day 4

It’s been a week of beating the starting prices without the right results for me. I targeted five winners from the fourteen races, that I’d bet on. So far I’m at two and a half! Usually by this time I’ve already made my money, but this year I’m staring at the prospect of my first ever losing festival unless I can get one of these winners in.

I went to bed hoping that we’d get rain and we have,  hopefully we get more!

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”13:30 – The Triumph Hurdle” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Peace and Co is a worthy favoutite for this race, based on his performance at Doncaster. However there isn’t much scope for his price to shorten and on a line through Karezak he didn’t do anything extraordinary last time out over course and distance. The stronger pace of this race should help him settle and the same can be said about Beltor.

Hargam is another form the Henderson stable, but now the rain has come (thankfully) I’m sideing with TOP NOTCH. He’s done nothing wrong this season and to my eye is the best jumper in the field. The rain will help his chances and if the rain continues until the off I can see him going off at 6.00 (5/1).

TN

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Back Top Notch at 9.00 – Bet Victor[/symple_box]

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”14:40 – The Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

No More Heroes has for that ties in with Shaneshill, who finished second in the opening race on Tuesday. This is his first attempt at three miles, on visual impressions he looks like he’ll stay but the price is too short for what he’s actually achieved.

Black Hercules finished fourth in last seasons Champion Bumper and is a worthy favourite, but again he isn’t for me at the prices. I’m siding with VALUE AT RISK, he’s the ‘value’ in the race for me and should shorten up once the on course markets open. He finished second in the Neptune trial at Cheltenham back in January and shaped that day like three miles is a better trip for him. Being out of Kayf Tara is also a positive on the belief that he’ll stay.

At 11.0 (10/1) he’s a great each-way play, because he should shorten up when one of the market leaders drift and on course punters look for alternatives.

vAR

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Back Value At Risk each-way at 11.00 – General[/symple_box]

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”15:20 – The Gold Cup” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

I can’t have anything that ran in last years race, as a form race there is nothing I want to take from it. If Lord Windermere is actually the best staying chaser we have and has the ability to win back to back Gold Cups then we all might as well give up the game.

Silviniaco Conti should be favorite for this race, but I can’t back a horse who has failed in The Gold Cup twice already. We can point to his form and say look what he’s done this year, but he done exactly the same last year. He’s been beating two and a half milers on flat tracks, this is a completely different challenge where staying is going to be key.

The reason you’ll need to stay well, in this race especially is because of the presence of CONEYGREE. He needed the rain and it’s came. We can say that he’s only a novice, running in open company, however I’m not that concerned about that when it comes to front runners. On a line through Houblon Des Obeaux he has the beating of Many Clouds, who has won two big trials for this.

Road To Riches brings the best of the Irish form, with his win in the Lexus back in December, but I’m not sure how strongly I can rate that. The proximity of On His Own and Sam Winner has to be a concern. There’s been a lot of talk about Carlingford Lough, but does a 3/4 length beating of Foxrock who finished 59 lengths behind Uxizandre yesterday add up to anything? My answer is no.

Djakadam’s price is complete hype, the stable think a lot of him but on what he’s shown he’s not a 8.00 (7/1) shot.

This will be Coneygree’s best chance of winning The Gold Cup, the rain has come and is coming. If he’s allowed to get his own way up front he’ll be very tough to catch as he’s an excellent jumper and stays all day.

coneygree

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Back Coneygree at 11.00 – Bet Victor[/symple_box]

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