Newbury – 18th April 2015

Three races into my flat season and I’m up by 33% ROT, that’s nothing to really should about as it’s a small sample size and a long season. However if I can end the season at half that Return on Turnover I’ll be happy.

We have two classic trials at Newbury today, along with a strong looking John Porter.

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”13:45 – The John Porter Stakes” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

ROMSDAL finished third in The Derby and second in The St Leger last season, he has the benefit of a run this year and despite this being a good looking race, I have him clear on my ratings. I actually thing he should be nearer a 2.00 (evens) shot than the current 2.75 (7/4).

He receives six pounds from Pether’s Moon and I don’t think that horse is good enough to carry that penalty against the selection. Windshear was behind (4th) Romsdal in the St Leger, so on a line of form through that he needs to improve.

Arab Spring, but in some excellent handicap performances last year, before stepping up to Group Two class and disappointing at The July Meeting. Without a run this season, I wouldn’t want to be backing him as this looks a tough race to pitch up first time in to. I can also see the stable having bigger plans for him later in the season, if they still believe that he’s good enough.

Romsdal is the pick on form, he’s shown his well-being and the price is bigger than I expected.

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Back Romsdal at 2.75 – Bet 365[/symple_box]


[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”14:15 – The Fred Darling Stakes” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

This race is all about TIGGY WIGGY, if she stays seven furlongs then she wins. The questions are being asked because she was so good over five and six furlongs that naturally you’d think that she won’t stay seven furlongs. I however, have no doubts about her staying an extra two hundred meters, watching he last run back she won comfortably and looked as though she could get further. He breeding says that she should ‘get’ the trip without too many issues and all that is good enough for me to get involved.

I make her a 1.73 (8/11) chance at the most, so 2.00 (evens) with Coral if you can get or the 1.91 (10/11) elsewhere, looks a decent bet.

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Back Tiggy Wiggy at 2.00 – Coral[/symple_box]

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”14:50 – Greenham Stakes” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

This race has been won by Frankel and Kingman in the last few years, so it’s a race that will have a bearing on some bigger races later in the year.

I have to oppose Ivawood here, the form that he’s shown doesn’t warrant him being a 2.75 (7/4) chance. If it had come up soft then Belardo would be the pick, but on Good or Good to Firm ground he’s already been beaten by Ivawood and ESTIDHKAAR. 

The Hamdam Al Maktoum horse is where my money will be going in this race. There are some question marks around his breeding and this trip at this level, but that’s why we’re getting 7.00 (6/1) and not 4.00 (3/1) or shorter. He won two Group Two races over seven furlongs last season, before finishing fourth in a Group One. The Group One race was won by Belardo, however that was on soft ground and I fully expect that for to be reversed today.

[symple_box color=”green” text_align=”center” width=”100%” float=”none”]
Back Estidhkaar at 7.00 – Bet Victor[/symple_box]

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