Newmarket -16th April 2015

My first bet of the flat season was a non-runner, so stakes returned. However there were plenty of positives to take from the Nell Gwyn yesterday and in true flat racing style, plenty of bubbles were burst.

Today’s card at Newmarket boasts three group races, for me to get stuck into.

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MUSIC MASTER is the clear form pick of these, he finished fourth in the Group One Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot, that was followed up by winning a Group Three at Newbury, before he rounded off his campaign with an excellent third in the sprint cup at Haydock.

A repeat of the form from last season should be enough here.

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Back Music Master at 3.25 – Bet Victor[/symple_box]

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I’m surprised to see Moheet as the favourite as that’s all based on the potential of one run, we saw with Faydhan  yesterday that form in the book is better than potential.

For that reason NAFAQA has to be the bet here. He missed the kick at Royal Ascot but finished like a train, he followed up that with back to back wins, before a ‘good’ second to Elm Park in The Royal Lodge in which White Lake was back in fourth.

That is the best form over a mile on offer and I’d have him quite a bit shorter than he currently is.

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Back Nafaqa at 4.50 – Bet Victor[/symple_box]

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FRENCH NAVY finished second in this last year and finished the season off with a hat-trick. He tops the ratings and is my choice here, a little bit by default if I’m honest.

Grandeur is dropping down in trip, I don’t think that will suit him. Lincoln second Mondilaliste is stepping up in trip, I’m not sure that will suit.

Arod, has the potential to improve, but I’m not sure if the distance here will suit. I wouldn’t be surprised if he won, but I’d rather put my money on form than potential improvement, especially when it comes to a horse I’m not that sold on. He ran a big race in The Dante, looked impressive in The Derby, but that last run in The International gave me the impression that he may have regressed.

Glory Awaits, comes here with a penalty and I don’t think that he’s good enough.

That leaves French Navy as the most likely  winner, I’d price him up in the 2.75 (7/4) to 2.88 (15/8) bracket, so I’m happy enough to take the 3.50on offer.

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Back French Navy at 3.50 – Bet Victor[/symple_box]

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