Eurovision Semi Final 2

Another year and another successful first semi-final, yes Denmark and Macedonia didn’t qualify for me but I was so heavily leveraged against Finland that it didn’t really matter.

This semi is about a million times better in quality terms than Tuesday night was. From a qualification point of view their are seventeen songs fighting it out for ten places. However if we discount Portugal and San Marino, because they won’t be qualifying and David Guetta Sweden, because they’ve already won this semi-final, then we only have fourteen songs fighting it out for nine places.

For me this is a tough to find a bet that I’m confident in, so I won’t be having anything near as much as I had on Finland not qualifying. I’m only having one bet that I’ll actually know the result of tonight and it’s a play that I didn’t really want to make.

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Lithuania” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

I think that this is a great song, but it’s first up in a semi-final full of songs that are at least equal to it. That’s where the problem lies, if it was in the second half of the show I think that it would be a certain qualifier. They have a few voting allies to call upon, which is always helpful and it’s a well sung and well performed song.

The price is my issue though, it’s 1.4x to qualify, whereas I have it as boarder-line. I can see the juries scoring it below at least nine other countries, which means it must pick up public support and going first I’m not so sure that it will.

I have it around about the 2.00 (even money) mark to qualify, so opposing it by backing it Not To Qualify is the bet to have.

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Back Lithuania NOT To Qualify at 3.25 – Betfair Sportsbook[/symple_box]

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Your Eurovision winner is…” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

SWEDEN, well this song would win 50% of Eurovisions. It’s almost a complete copy of David Guetta’s “Lovers On The Sun”. They’ve just changed the words and put together some excellent staging. All this from a neutral country, with a good set of allies. I think that this years contest is a two horse race between Sweden and Russia, so I’m now going to start backing accordingly.

If Sweden doesn’t shorten after tonight I will be utterly amazed. If it goes off bigger than 3.00 on Saturday then it will only be because of support for Russia, in my opinion. After Sweden have performed later, I’m expecting a small drift on Russia and that’s when I’ll start to back them. This should then leave me with ‘green’ numbers next to what I think are the only two countries who can with this years show (at the moment).

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Back Sweden To win Eurovision at 2.9x- Betfair Exchange[/symple_box]

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