As I wrote on Tuesday, Finland Not To Qualify for tonight’s Final was the biggest part of my week, it was my largest bet of the week and due to it landing the rest of the competition has become a free-roll for me.
Thursday’s semi-final was about me trying to get a good position on the outright book. I backed Sweden at 2.92 and laid off 75% of my stake at 2.74, I could have laid at 2.3x, before Mans sung but I thought the price would contract further. At the same time I backed Russia at 6.40, but left Sweden as the bigger green. After seeing the running order I decided to swap my greens around, Russia are now my biggest winner with Sweden also potentially profitable. I still stand by my belief that this is a two horse race.
If you haven’t had a bet already, then backing Russia at 5.00 then covering your stake with Sweden at 2.6x would be my conservative advice. My personal feeling, like it has been for months now is that Russia will win this and they are the best ‘value’ call. I’m going to be backing these two outcomes throughout the day.
[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Building Bridges From Vienna to Moscow” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]
There was a lot of talk last year about how Russia is anti-gay, they were killing people in the streets of Ukraine and from a Eurovision point of view they would fail miserably. They finished seven with a poor song, compare that to The UK who entered a better song from a better draw completely failed and it’s clear to see that Russia will always have their supporters in the east, despite what The BBC (clueless BBC) will say.
Back to this year and it seems all set up for Russia;
1. The tag line of this years contest is ‘Building Bridges’, a victory for Russia would defiantly build some bridges
2. Their song is all about accepting peoples differences, peace and believing in good, it comes across as an apology, which should play well to some of the more western juries.
Those two things may just be a big coincidence, but they’re worth pointing out. If this song was sung by any other country then we’d be saying the below;
1. This is an excellent song, plays to the ears of both East and West.
2. Polina is an amazing vocalist.
3. Polina has an un-threatening look about her, very much like Sanna Nielsen who finished third last year. This should play well to the ‘mum vote’ and female vote in general.
4. They’re drawn late, 25th, despite not actually closing the show the song feels like it should be the last song. I think that Albania and Italy will be overshadowed by this.
5. Sweden are drawn 10th, in a stronger part of the show, which could show Mans up vocally. He can sing, but he doesn’t have anything spectacular about his voice.
6. Russia can still rely on strong voting allies, due to their large diaspora. For example over 25% of both Estonia and Latvia are ethnic Russians.
If this song was by a Scandinavian nation it would be sub 4.00 (3/1) in the betting, in a strong year. This looks to be a weaker year than the last few so a case can be made for it to be even shorter than 4.00.
[symple_box color=”green” text_align=”center” width=”100%” float=”none”]
Back Russia at 5.00 – Betfair Exchange[/symple_box]
Depending on how much risk you want to take, I would also advise backing Sweden to at least cover you stake at 2.6x.
Any other bets I place on Eurovision today can be found on Twitter @cherryanalysts.
There isn’t much market depth in the side markets at the moment, so I can’t really advise anything when there is no money there. It’s a shame it’s not like the old days when you could go down to a betting shop and just back sveral countries to beat The UK, nobody offers them markets anymore and if they do the bets would be a 1.2x shot.