Guineas Festival Day 2

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Fintry comes into this having been well supported in the markets since yesterday, however she is now too short a price. Her third in the Sun Chariot over course and distance is a really strong piece of form and on that she is entitled to be favourite. However that form doesn’t doesn’t make her 20% more likely to win than RIZEENA.

Rizeena has shown a similar level of form if take a line through her run behind Intergal in the Falmouth last year. She’s a dual Group One winner as she landed the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot last year and the Moyglare Stud Stakes the year before that. Physically she’s a very impressive horse and the fact they’ve ran her in races with colts show that the stable thinks she has the ability, which has been backed up be her running well in those races. My only concern with her is that she’s needed the run first time out in the past, but at the prices she has to be backed for me as I have her nearer a 3.25 (9/4) shot, than the current 7.00 (6/1).

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Back Rizeena at 7.00 – Bet Victor[/symple_box]

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LUCIDA has strong claims on form, as she’s already beaten Fadhayil and has also finished ahead of Osaila, Malabar and Qualify when second in the Moyglare. I’m looking for a reason to oppose her at the price, but I can’t find one. I think that she should be favourite on what she’s shown and should probably be slightly shorter than 6.00 (5/1) in the betting.

There is the possibility that some of the horses that finished behind her last year could improver past her, but there is also the possibility that she could improve herself. Despite her only run over a mile ending in defeat, I’m prepared to give her another chance here as the distance should be no problem on here breeding.

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Back Lucida at 6.00 – Bet Victor[/symple_box]

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