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I’ve gone over this race a few times in the last couple of weeks, originally I was set on Karakontie, however he pulled out of the race injured. This is Newbury’s biggest ever race in terms of prize money, with £350,000 on offer it has attracted the largest ever field for this particular race. That however seems to have increased the field sizes, which the racing media will love, but has in some way diluted the quality and taken away some of the value for punters. Bigger fields mean the potential for more interference and larger degrees of draw or pace bias.
So after going round in circles looking at this race, I’ve come back to the horse that I was set on taking on. I expected NIGHT OF THUNDER to be a 2.75 (7/4) chance, so I cannot leave him unbacked at 3.75 (11/4). Other than when he didn’t stay over ten furlongs in the Coral-Eclipse he did nothing wrong last season. He won the 2000 Guineas, with Kingman and Australia behind him, he’s the only horse to actually beat Kingman. He ran in France on his penultimate start of last year, where he finished behind Charm Spirit and 2014 Queen Anne winner Toronado, that has to go down as a high level of form. On his final start of the season, he finished behind Charm Spirit on Champions Day, he found trouble in running that day and with a clear run he would probably have reversed the placings and now be a dual Group One winner.
I’m not going to go into rambling on about the other runners in the race, as I think it pays to keep it simple. On all form shown Night of Thunder is the best horse in the race, that doesn’t mean that he’ll win but he should go very close at a price bigger than I think he should be. Other than trouble in running, my only other concern with him is that he will come on for the run in this, but at the prices he is the bet to have.
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Back Night of Thunder at 3.75 – General[/symple_box]