Epsom Oaks Day

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ODELIZ finished second in this race last year, this years renewal looks a lot weaker with no Thistle Bird or Just The Judge. She still hasn’t won a group race but neither have any of the field, bar Arabian Queen. However this is Arabian Queens first start of the season, first try at this trip and first time at the track.

We know that Odeliz handles the course, we know that she stays the trip and we also know she’s healthy after her two runs this season, with her latest run ending in a fourth placed finish in a group two. She’s a worthy favourite on everything that we know and has to be the bet in this race.

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Back Odeliz at 4.00 – Betfair Sportsbook[/symple_box]

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I was initially going to back Shifting Power in this race, until I woke up and looked at the evidence. Shifting Power is a good horse, he finished fourth in both the English and Irish Guineas, however I have a doubt over whether he is a Group One miler. He’s had to go down to listed level to get a win after finishing three and a quarter lengths behind Custom Cut on his seasonal reappearance.

My feeling is that he wouldn’t get within a length of Night of Thunder over a mile and that’s exactly what AROD did last time out in The Lockinge. Arod had Custom Cut four lengths behind him in The Lockinge, and they were off level weights that day, Custom Cut has to concede 5lbs this time around and I don’t see how he’ll be able to reverse that form.

Arod should have no issues handling the track as he has already finished fourth in The Derby last year which is something that cannot be said of the others. With the best current form on offer in the race I can only see him going off shorter than the 3.00 currently available.

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Back Arod at 3.00 – William Hill[/symple_box]

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This looks a cracking renewal, we have some excellent form lines, great visual impressions and some beautifully bred horses. Legatissimo won the English 1000 Guineas in impressive style going away, however I have a few question marks about that form. Tiggy Wiggy was third that day which really does mean that question marks have to be asked if their were any quality milers in the field apart from Lucida. Going back through her form she has already been beaten by JACK NAYLOR over a mile and her form with Wedding Vow doesn’t stand up to much.

I’m going to back two horses in this race, Jack Naylor is the first of those. She has already beaten Legatissimo, she finished third in Marcel Boussac and then fourth on her seasonal reappearance in The Irish 1000 Guineas. Both of those races look to be over an trip too short for her and the extra distance here should play to her strengths. 8.00 (7/1) looks too big a price for me.

The other horse that I want on my side is TOGETHER FOREVER, she was beaten by a head by Star of Seville on her return at York last month. That day she had to concede 4lbs, over today’s longer trip, with a run under her belt and off level weights I expect her to reverse that form. However the main this for me with her is that she stays all day, she will be gaining ground in the final furlong if she doesn’t find herself in front by then. If she is in front inside the final furlong then she may be very hard to peg back, as I’d expect everything in behind to of had a hard race.

Dutching Jack Naylor and Together Forever works out at odds of 4.63 (Over 7/2), which is bigger than the price of the favourite.

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Back Jack Naylor at 8.00 – Betfair Sportsbook for 57.89% of Total Stake[/symple_box]

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Back Together Forever at 11.00 – William Hill for 42.11% of Total Stake[/symple_box]

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