Aston Villa v Manchester United

Starting Bank:£5,000 | Running Total:£4,752.15 | RoI/RoT:-51.9%| RoC:-4.957%
Level Stakes Profit/Loss to 1 Point: +1.8

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Aston Villa put in a solid away performance at Bournemouth last weekend, to come away with the three points. I’m not a fan of Tim Sherwood, but he has to be given credit for the way he’s got that team wanting to play.

Manchester United were less than impressive against Tottenham. Defensively they were fine, as they limited Spurs to shots from long range. Their problem came in creating anything, they got the goal through a great counter attack, but before and after that they created very little.

I expect to see Manchester United improve through the season, but I also don’t think we’ll be seeing Aston Villa priced up at 4.00+ when they visit the other promoted clubs.

Goal Expectancies
Aston Villa – 0.94727
Manchester Utd– 1.42303
Modelled Match Odds
Aston Villa – 3.98
Manchester Utd – 2.08
Draw – 3.71
Most Likely Correct Score: 0-1
The 0-1 correct score is currently priced up at 7.00, but my model has this priced as an 7.51 shot, therefore it cannot be seen as value. A 1-0 victory for Aston Villa offers the greatest value in the correct score market, that score is currently available to back at 15.0, I however have it at 11.29.

Asian Handicaps

VillaManU The best bet in the Asian Handicap markets is to side with Aston Villa +1 goal. This means that if Villa are beaten by one goal your stake is returned. A win for Aston Villa or a draw means that this bet will win. I have priced this up at 1.45, however 1.75 is available with Bet Victor.

In the whole of the 2014/15 season Manchester United only managed to fully cover the -1 line once away from home and that was courtesy of a last minute goal at QPR. At this moment in time there doesn’t appear to be much difference between the Manchester United side of last season and this current squad.

My advice is to back Aston Villa + 1 Asian Handicap at 1.75 for 6.87% of bank. This price is available with Bet Victor.



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