Starting Bank:£5,000 | Running Total:£4,726.77 | RoI/RoT:-20.63%| RoC:-5.46%
Level Stakes Profit/Loss to 1 Point: +2.03
[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Manchester United v Newcastle United” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]
Manchester United haven’t been convincing, but they have been winning. Two solid 1-0 victories in which they conceded a total of five shots on target and zero goals, has given them the opportunity to go top of the league for the first time in ages.
I’m still finding it difficult to get a handle on Newcastle, but I haven’t seen anything yet to suggest they are a nailed on bet for a top half finish. They’re have less shots than they were last season, but on the flip side they are hitting the target with a high percentage. I think they’ve signed well, but it will be interesting to see how loud the Ashley out brigade come if results don’t come their way.
Manchester United – 2.37208
Newcastle United– 0.63105
Modelled Match Odds
Manchester United – 1.31
Newcastle United – 12.39
Draw – 6.36
Most Likely Correct Score: 2-0
The 2-0 correct score is currently priced up at 7.00 (888 Sport), but my model has this priced as an 7.16 shot, which makes it just short of a ‘value’ bet. The only value score that I have is 3-0, this is available to back at 10.0 with Bet Victor, however I have it priced at 9.05.
It’s a very rare thing to see me side with one of the ‘big’clubs, but everything is telling me that Manchester United are being underrated in this match. What’s even rarer is that I’m going to advise backing something at relatively short odds. My Chelsea v Swansea preview shows what I’m usually like.
I think we can all agree Manchester United are expected to win this game, by how many is a different matter though. This is why I love Asian Handicap betting, I can back Manchester United -1 and if they only win by one goal I get my stake back. If they win 2-0, which I have modelled as the most likely score then I will win.
I couldn’t put anyone off backing Manchester United on any of the Asian lines, however I have the optimum bet is to place 4.3325% of your bank on Manchester United -1 Asian Handicap at 1.60 with 888Sport.