Premier League – Saturday 15th August 2015

Starting Bank:£5,000 | Running Total:£4,752.15 | RoI/RoT:-51.9%| RoC:-4.957%
Level Stakes Profit/Loss to 1 Point: +1.8

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Southampton v Everton” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Every single report on Everton last weekend was negative. Even before they kicked a ball they’d drifted from 1.6x to 1.9x. They escaped with a 2-2 draw courtesy of a last minute goal.

Southampton also drew 2-2, away at Newcastle. I wasn’t sure Southampton would be able to maintain the sort of performances they put in last season, they still may not. Going forward they looked in good shape and created enough chances. If Pelle can get his shooting boots on then he’ll score more that the 12 goals he got last season, which will make Southampton a very tough side again.

Goal Expectancies
Southampton – 1.81134
Everton – 0.82509
Modelled Match Odds
Southampton – 1.64
Everton – 6.01
Draw – 4.42
Most Likely Correct Score: 1-0

The value correct score in this match is a 3-0 home win, I have this priced at 14.07, Bet Victor have this priced up at 19.0

Asian Handicaps

SaintsEvertonI think that Southampton will do something similar to what they did int his match-up last season. They beat Everton 3-0 and never looked in any danger of losing that match.

I have Southampton -0.75 (-0.5, -1) as the bets bet in the Asian Handicap markets for this game. This means that a Southampton victory by two or more goals is needed to be fully paid out. However if Southampton only manage to win by one goal half your stake will be returned and the other half will be a winner at 2.25.

I advice placing 4.76% of bank on Southampton -0.75 Asian Handicap at 2.25. This price is available with Bet Victor and Paddy Power.

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Tottenham v Stoke City” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Tottenham looked like they were suffering the affects of playing two friendlies in the days leading up to their season opener. They created very little and with my expectation of Harry Kane’s goal scoring exploits regressing this season, they look like they need to be opposed.

Stoke were beaten by an 86th minute Coutinho goal on Sunday, they keeper could have done better but it was a fantastic strike. They didn’t create enough to win the game, but I feel they were unlucky to lose it. They stopped Liverpool from creating chances and tried to hit them on the counter. If they can find some composure up front this season they not many sides will beat at home or away.

Goal Expectancies
Tottenham – 1.56497
Stoke City – 1.03538
Modelled Match Odds
Tottenham– 2.01
Stoke City – 3.98
Draw– 3.94
Most Likely Correct Score: 1-1

Although 1-1 is the score I believe is most likely, all the value is on the Stoke side of the market. If you’re looking to have a bet in this market then my advice would be to back a 1-0 Stoke victory. That outcome is priced at 15.00 with Bet365, I however have this priced at 13.00.

Asian Handicaps

SpursStokeAs I said above I believe that Tottenham will score less goals than they did last season and that Stoke will be tough to beat home or away. Therefore I’m happy that Stoke 0 Asian Handicap has be flagged up as the bet to have. This bet is effectively draw no bet at 3.65, an outcome that I believe should be 2.97.

My advice is to back Stoke 0 Asian Handicap at 3.65 for 2.13% of bank. That price is available with 888 Sport.

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Swansea City v Newcastle United” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

I backed Swansea +1 last weekend on the basis that the price was too big and if they did lose I didn’t think it would be by more than one goal. They fully deserved their 2-2 draw at Chelsea and that was before Courtois was sent off. They created  plenty of chances and were somewhat ‘unlucky’ with the goals they did concede.

Newcastle managed to come from behind to draw 2-2 with Southampton, which on the face of it is a good result. It’s to early in the Season to make any solid predictions on Newcastle, but I doubt they’ll go down.
Goal Expectancies
Swansea City – 1.78285
Newcastle Utd – 0.8903
Modelled Match Odds
Swansea City– 1.71
Newcastle Utd – 5.41
Draw – 4.32
Most Likely Correct Score: 1-0
The only correct scores that show up as value on my model are the 2-0 and 3-0 home wins. Of those two a 3-0 Swansea victory offers the larger percentage (1.52%) of perceived value. i would have that outcome priced at 15.33, but Bet Victor are offering 20.00.

Asian Handicaps

SwansNewcThe best bet to have in this match is to side with Swansea on the -0.75 (-0.5, -1) Asian Handicap line.

My staking advice would be to place 3.435% of bank on Swansea -0.75 Asian Handicap at 2.23 with Bet Victor.

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