Premier League – Saturday 29th August 2015

Starting Bank:£5,000 | Running Total:£4,458.91 | RoI/RoT:-33.%| RoC:-10.82%
Level Stakes Profit/Loss to 1 Point: +0.03

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Aston Villa v Sunderland” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

The two worst side in the league get to meet after only three games played. Aston Villa look toothless upfront, whilst Sunderland can’t defend.

Villa started brightly at Selhurst Park last weekend, bur failed to take any of their chances. In the second half they were awful, with the one bright spark coming from an own goal.

Sunderland simply can’t defend, they concede more shots on goal than any other team in the league. The advantage that they have over Aston Villa is that Jermaine Defoe seems to have found some goal scoring form.

Goal Expectancies
Aston Villa – 1.20561
Sunderland– 1.02908
Modelled Match Odds
Aston Villa – 2.49
Sunderland – 3.20
Draw – 3.47
Most Likely Correct Score: 1-1
The 1-1 correct score is priced at 7.50, I have this priced at 7.53 so it’s about right. In terms of value scorelines the 0-0 draw offers some value, however the best value to be had in this market is on the Sunderland winning scores. Of these a 0-1 correct score, looks the best option as I have it priced at 9.07, but 13.0 is available with Bet Victor.

Asian Handicaps


All the value is on the Sunderland side of the market, which is what you would expect as it’s difficult to make a case for Villa being odds-on against anyone.

The optimum bet is to back Sunderland +0.25 at 2.49 with Bet Victor, however I’m going to go slightly against my beliefs here and advise backing Sunderland +0.75 (+0.5, +1) at 1.79. This means that a Sunderland victory or a draw would be a full payout. The only reason I’m taking the slightly safer bet is because I have very little faith in Sunderland, but I still believe they are the value call here. If Aston Villa are to win then it’s unlikely to be by more than a single goal, therefore you would get half your stake back.

From a staking view point I would advise a backing Sunderland +0.75 Asian Handicap with 6.6875% of bank at 1.79. This price is available with Bet Victor.

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Stoke City v West Brom” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Stoke City haven’t gelled yet, two draws and a defeat doesn’t look great, but when you consider they only lost their opening game due to a wonder goal and the other two matches were away from home it looks slightly better. Stoke won’t be getting relegated this season and I fully expect them to finish in the top half.

By contrast West Brom can’t defend. Ok they’ve played Chelsea and Manchester City, but the defensive mistakes they made were basic. Despite their two goals last weekend, I still feel they lack much going forward, especially with Berahino not playing.

West Brom will try to keep this game tight, but with the way they’ve been playing I expect Stoke to score and that may be enough.
Goal Expectancies
Stoke City– 1.68602
West Brom– 0.853344
Modelled Match Odds
Stoke City– 1.75
West Brom– 5.30
Draw – 4.15
Most Likely Correct Score: 1-0
There isn’t any real value to be had in this market, the value correct scores are 2-0, 3-0 and 3-1 of those 3-0 offer the greater expected value is 3-0. I have a 3-0 home win priced at 15.86, however Bet Victor are offering 20.00.

Asian Handicaps

StokeWBAI wouldn’t put anyone off backing Stoke-0.50 at 1.95, but the optimum bet to have is Stoke -1 at 2.85.

If Stoke only manage to win by a single goal, then stakes will be returned. A Stoke win by more than a single goal will result in a full payout.

My advice is to back Stoke City -1 Asian Handicap at 2.85 for 2.79% of bank. This price is available with 888 Sport.



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