Premier League – Saturday 8th August 2015

Starting Bank:£5,000 | Running Total:£5,000 | RoI/RoT: 0% | RoC:0%

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Leicester City v Sunderland” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]Many people have tipped Leicester to be relegated this season, however I believe that their squad is stronger than the one they finished with. That may not be enough to keep them up, but I believe they will be more consistent than last year.

Like Leicester, Sunderland also performed ‘The Great Escape’. This time around they have strengthened their midfield and defensive options, but they still appear to be lacking a clinical striker. Last season they only scored with 24.03% of their shots on target, only Burnley were worse. Their other major concern is that on average they conceded 16.42 shots on goal per game, which was a league high. If it wasn’t for Pantillimon finishing 3rd in the saves chart, with 111, they would have been relegated.

Goal Expectancies
Leicester City – 1.54941
Sunderland – 0.9318
Modelled Match Odds
Leicester City – 1.93
Sunderland – 4.40
Draw – 3.90
Most Likely Correct Score: 1-0
The best price currently available for the 1-0 correct score is 7.50 with 888 Sport, I have this outcome priced at 7.71 so it is of no value. The only correct score that does show up as value on my numbers is the 3-1 home victory, this is priced at 21.0 with 888Sport, however my model has this outcome priced at 20.69.

Asian Handicaps

My model is telling me that the best value in the Asian Handicap market is to back Leicester on the -0.75 line at 2.30. This means that if Leicester win by 1 clear goal, half your stake is returned and the other half is paid out at 2.30. If Leicester win by two clear goals then your full stake is paid out at 2.30. Obviously if Leicester fail to win the bet goes down as a loser.

Based on last season’s defensive statistics Sunderland, on average, start every game 1.39 goals behind and I see no reason why that would have dramatically changed, to award Sunderland an rankings upgrade.

My advice is to back Leicester -0.75 (-0.5,-1) Asian Handicap at 2.30 for 0.6076% of bank, for example on a £5000 bankroll you would place £30.37 on this bet. This price is available with 888Sport.

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Chelsea v Swansea City” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]
Chelsea start the defence of their league title with a home game against a Swansea side who surprised many, myself included, by finishing 8th last season. Arsenal played well in last weekend’s Community Shield, however Chelsea were wasteful and lack-lustre in front of goal without Diego Costa, who is an again an injury doubt for this match.

Chelsea led the league with percentage of shots that hit the target (37.3%) last season and finished 3rd in the Shots on Target to Goal % table, with 34.76% converted. Those figures gave them an average of 1.92 goals per game.

Chelsea will still create plenty of chances, however their goal threat drops when Costa doesn’t play. When Costa played last season Chelsea averaged 2.20 goals per game, but they ‘only’ averaged 1.40 GPG without him. One thing of note is that their points per game with or without Costa was that same, 2.30 PPG.
Goal Expectancies
Chelsea – 1.96426
Swansea – 0.68563
Modelled Match Odds
Chelsea – 1.47
Swansea – 8.27
Draw – 4.91
Most Likely Correct Score: 1-0
I have priced the 1-0 correct score up at 7.20 and 2-0 at 7.33, the best prices available on these score lines are 7.00, and therefore they cannot be considered value. The correct score that offers the greatest margin is the 0-1 away victory. I have this outcome priced at 20.64, however 29.0 is available with Coral,Click Here To Back.

Asian Handicaps

ChSwThe strength of this bet may revolve around Diego Costa’s participation, however my numbers are produced on the likely-hood that he will be playing, so siding with Swansea in the Asian markets is definitely the way to play this match.

Interestingly Chelsea and Swansea had very similar performance against the handicaps last season. Both sides beat their handicap on 18 occasions, however Chelsea did cover the ‘push’ more often with 5 compared to Swansea’s 1. If there was a handicapping league Chelsea would have finished 9th with Swansea 10th, when compared to how the league table actually finished that’s a bit like a match-up between Stoke and Crystal Palace.

The value call in this game is Swansea -1 Asian Handicap, which means if Swansea win or draw you get paid at 2.50, if Swansea are beaten by only one goal your stake is returned. With a 1-0 home victory the most likely score line, on my calculations, I’m confident of at least having my stake returned. If Diego Costa doesn’t feature it dramatically increases my confidence in Swansea getting at least a point.

My advice is to back Swansea +1 Asian Handicap at 2.50 for 1.5125% of bank, this means that on a bankroll of £5000 your stake would be £75.62. This price is available with Bet Victor and Paddy Power.

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