Stoke City v Liverpool

Starting Bank:£5,000 | Running Total:£5,152.91 | RoI/RoT: 144.26% | RoC:3.05%

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I’ve had my eye on this game since the fixtures came out, I knew that it would be one I’d be getting involved in. Saying that I had to check my calculations a few times as the odds and the amount they’re telling me to stake look huge in comparison to everything else this weekend. As it stands a Liverpool win in this will wipe out yesterdays profits and take the ‘bank’ below what it started it.

I don’t really have any issues with Liverpool this season, I think they’ll improve and I think they’ve bought well. However I still don’t see them being able to finish any higher than 4th, and expect them to end up in 5th. 

I’ve upgraded Liverpool’s Shot on Target to goal ratio from 26.8% to 31% on the basis that they actually have players who can score goals now. The rest of their stats remain the same, as they were consistent with what I’d expect from a 3rd to 5th placed side. They may out perform 31% SoT to Goals over the course of the season, but it’s unlikely to be by much.

Goal Expectancies
Stoke City – 1.49697
Liverpool – 1.27047
Modelled Match Odds
Stoke City – 2.35
Liverpool – 3.10
Draw – 3.94
Most Likely Correct Score: 1-1 
The 1-1 correct score is currently priced up at 7.00, but my model has this priced as an 8.36 shot, therefore it cannot be seen as value. 2-2 and 3-3 draws are value if odds bigger than 17.60 and 83.30 are available. The score that offers the most value is the 2-0 Stoke victory, I have this priced at 14.20, yet 20.00 is available with Bet Victor.

Asian Handicaps


Stoke were fantastic against the handicap last season, they beat the line on 21 occasions and also managed a push 4 times. Liverpool were almost polar opposites, they failed against the line on 21 occasions and only picked up 15 wins, with only Newcastle performing worse. In terms of comparing these two sides from a handicapping point of view, it’s the equivalent of Arsenal v Burnley.

The best bet to have in this match is to side with Stoke on the 0 Asian Handicap, which is the equivalent to draw no bet. I have it priced up at 1.75 but we can get 2.49 with Bet Victor, that generates 16.73% of value by my calculations.

This is my best bet of the weekend, at maybe even the entire season, based on theoretical value. Therefore this may be the largest bet of the season in terms of percentage of bank. My advice is to back Stoke 0 Asian Handicap at 2.49 for 7.7775% of bank. This price is available with Bet Victor.



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