Swansea City v Manchester United

Starting Bank:£5,000 | Running Total:£4,567.20 | RoI/RoT:-21.48%| RoC:-8.65%
Level Stakes Profit/Loss to 1 Point: -0.18

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Have Manchester United now turned the corner after winning 4-0 in midweek, against a side who like to and had to attack? We don’t know for sure, but what we do know is that Manchester United don’t win by many when they play away from home. They’ve now only won by more that a singles goal on the road once in their last twenty Premier League games, that was at QPR with a last minute goal.

Swansea have started the season well with seven points from three games. Defensively they are well organised and they have an exciting partnership building up front, with Ayew and Gomis. In a season where the big clubs haven’t really fired yet, Swansea have the opportunity to steal a march and maybe get back into Europe.

Goal Expectancies
Swansea City – 1.251213
Manchester Utd– 1.231653
Modelled Match Odds
Swansea City – 2.71
Manchester Utd – 2.78
Draw – 3.68
Most Likely Correct Score: 1-1
The value in this market is on the home win scorelines. Of those options the best bet looks to be a 2-0 home win, which is available at 21.0 with Bet Victor, I have this priced at 15.29. 

Asian Handicaps

SwaMan

Manchester United’s struggles in front of goal this season have me believing that this is a fantastic opportunity for Swansea to get another victory over them. We have two well organised defences that don’t concede many shots, Manchester United have conceded the least shots this season (7 per game), whilst Swansea the third lowest (8.33 per game). 

However Swansea sit third in the shots for table averaging 19 shots per game, compared to Manchester United who are eleventh with 12.67 shots per game. I think Swansea will score in this match and I don’t see them conceding two, I have 1-1 as the most likely score, but wouldn’t be surprised if this ended 1-0 or 2-0.

With that in mind I advise  backing Swansea 0 Asian Handicap with 4.155% of bank at 2.50, with Bet Victor. Therefore if the match ends a draw your stake is returned.

bet365

Gomis

2 Comments

  1. Hi, I was wondering do you have a previous background in modelling that helps you price up events. Also I was wondering how long it would take to learn how to update a spreadsheet with this data and learn about the formulas necessary for odds compiling. Any help would be much appreciated!

    • Hi Darragh,

      I don’t particularity have a background in modelling, however maths is one of my stronger points.

      Learning the formulas can take some time, but once your tweaked them enough to get them set you don’t really need to change them.

      My best peice of advice is to sit down and think about what type of data is relevant for what you want to model

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