York Ebor Festival – Day 3

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I don’t think there’s a need to go into that much detail in this race. We have 20 runners, but only one of them is ‘extremely well handicapped’.

ACAPULCO doesn’t have an official rating from the BHA yet, however they do rate Behsarah 108. Besharah was terrific yesterday, but in The Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot Acapulco put her well and truly in her place. If we add her full weight allowance on that rating, she comes up as a 135 horse. Even taking a more conservative look at things her weight adjusted rating is around 124, without any natural improvement.

Being a two year old filly, she gets a weight allowance of around TWO STONES. Judged on her Ascot performance I have her down with around¬†¬† 13-15lbs in hand of the field, if she’s naturally improved like a two year old should then it’s doubtful we’ll see a better handicapped horse for a while. Or to put it another way, if she ran off 9 stones like she did at Ascot, she wouldn’t be beaten very far, less than half a length, if beaten at all.

I was slightly concerned about the ground, but trainer Wesley Ward has said she has no excuses. She will bounce out and try to make all, which may mean the slower surface could help her chance as it’s tougher to make up ground on a surface with a lot of cut.

To put it simply, she’s well handicapped I would have her as an odds-on shot. It doesn’t mean that she will win, but this price is too big.

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Back Acapulco at 3.00 – Coral[/symple_box]

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