Starting Bank:£5,000 | Running Total:£5,046.86 | RoI/RoT:+1.66%| RoC:+0.93%
Level Stakes Profit/Loss to 1 Point: +1.91
Chelsea have been poor this season , the defensive solidarity they showed last year appears to have gone. They’re conceding 15.6 shots per game, of which 50% are on target. The good news is that it can’t get much worse than that for them, they’re under performing but will improve. At the end of the season 50% of the shots they face would not have hit the target and we can therefore expect them to start conceding less goals.
Arsenal lead the way on shots for this season, averaging 22.4 shots per game, with 34.82% hitting the target, yet only 12.82% of those find the back of the net. If Arsenal keep on having 22.4 shots per game, then they will win the league in my opinion as that 12.82% figure is too low. The problem that Arsenal face is that they won’t go through the season having 22 shots per game. Therefore from a goal scoring point of view I don’t see them improving too much on what they’ve already shown.
Interestingly Arsenal are conceding 8.8 shots per game, which is something they can maintain, but 45.45% of these shots are hitting the target. However of those shots only 15% are being turned into goals. I expect the 45.45% to come down but around 10%, whilst seeing that 15% double to around 30%.
Chelsea – 1.500721
Modelled Match Odds
Chelsea – 2.15
Arsenal – 3.58
Draw – 3.87
Most Likely Correct Score: 1-1
1-1 is the most likely score on my calculations, however the bookmakers also agree with this, so instead of the 8.16 I have it priced at only 7.50 is available. There isn’t a lot of ‘value’ to be had, but 1-0, 2-0 and 3-0 are the only scores, that I have as value. Of those three scores 1-0 has the largest margin, I have it priced at 9.01, but Bet Victor have it priced at 10.50.
This game is all about Chelsea and if they can return to the sort of form we all know they’re capable of. I really don’t see them losing this match and I wouldn’t put anyone off backing Chelsea on the -0.25 or -0.50 lines. However my model tells me that the optimum bet is to back Chelsea on the 0 Asian Handicap. I believe that the 0 line should have Chelsea priced at 1.60, but 1.73 gives me a theoretical ‘edge’ of 4.62%.
I’m confident in this bet, and think that the reasons I gave in the opening to this preview sum up why I’m confident, basically I’m expecting to start seeing a degree of regression towards the mean from both these sides. My advice is to back Chelsea 0 Asian Handicap at 1.73 for 2.47% of bank. This price is available with Bet Victor.