Premier League – Saturday 12th September 2015

Starting Bank:£5,000 | Running Total:£4,851.84 | RoI/RoT:-6.72%| RoC:-2.96%
Level Stakes Profit/Loss to 1 Point: +1.11

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Arsenal v Stoke City” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

This game revolves around whether or not Arsenal are going to find some form in front of goal. If they score three or four goals then there will be plenty of people that will tell you backing Arsenal at sub 1.30 was a fantastic bet. I won’t be one of those people.

Arsenal have now failed to score in five of their last six home games and before the international break they struggled to break down a ten man Newcastle side. Own goal is currently their top goal scorer with two of their three goals.

Stoke had two men sent off in the first half of their last match, which ultimately cost them as West Brom ran out 1-0 winners. I don’t think we can read too much into that match, apart from saying that West Brom look a very poor side.

Goal Expectancies
Arsenal – 1.917501
Stoke City– 0.771339
Modelled Match Odds
Arsenal – 1.55
Stoke City – 6.98
Draw – 4.69
Most Likely Correct Score: 1-0 
In the Correct Score market, the value is generally on the draw and away win score lines. Of these 1-1 offers the greatest value, which is priced at 13.0. This is followed by a 1-0 Stoke City victory, priced at 31.0. There is one Arsenal scoreline that can be seen as value, 2-1 is priced at 10.5 with Bet Victor, however I have this priced at 10.37.

Asian Handicaps

ArsStk

Stoke have been one of the most underrated sides in the league for a few seasons now. Two years ago they won the ‘Handicap’ league by being profitable in 63% of games against the spread. Last season they finished third in that particular table, covering themselves on 55% of occasions.

When this game was played back in January, Arsenal were 1.50 to win it. Arsenal ran out 3-0 winners, however Stoke started terribly and conceded after six minutes. Have Arsenal improved so much in eight months that their chances of winning this match increased by 10%?

I really like the Stoke +1.75 (+1.5, +2) Asian Handicap here. If Stoke are beaten by exactly two goals, half my stake is returned. A one goal defeat, draw or away victory would see me winning.

To put this bet into some context, Manchester City had to conceded two goals to Watford in the last round of fixtures, whilst Chelsea and Liverpool both had to concede 1.5 goals. None of these bets would have made you money and the gaps in quality between the sides mentioned and their opponents was bigger that the class gap in this match.

My advice is to back Stoke City +1.75 Asian Handicap at 1.82 for 7.26% of Bank. These odds are available with Bet Victor.

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Manchester United v Liverpool” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Manchester United have laboured their way to seven points, at no stage have they looked threatening in front of goal. However defensively they look well organised and solid. You’ll need to be a good side to score two goals against them this season and that’s what I think Swansea are.

For however ‘poor’ Manchester United have been, Liverpool are worse. They needed a wonder goal from Coutinho to score their only legitimate goal this season, he’s suspended for this match. I just don’t see Liverpool creating much without him. Benteke needs players to feed him, which is why Nathaniel Clyne will be crucial to their chances. If he cam be pinned back then Liverpool look very narrow and easy to defend against.

Goal Expectancies
Manchester Utd – 1.879446
Liverpool – 0.9024
Modelled Match Odds
Manchester Utd – 1.65
Liverpool – 5.69
Draw – 4.51
Most Likely Correct Score: 1-0 
Popular belief says that this will be a low scoring game, but that’s reflected in the odds. If I was to advise one bet in this market it would be a 3-0 home victory, which is priced at 20.0 as I have this priced at 14.59.

Asian Handicaps

ManLiv

I think that this game provides an excellent opportunity to not only side with Manchester United, but also to try and get a much bigger price on them. The bet that I like is Manchester United -1, this would require Manchester United to win by more than a single goal to win the bet. However if they win by a single goal, stakes are returned. I feel this is the way to play this match due to my belief that Manchester United will score, they will likely score the first goal and if they do I think we may see Liverpool crumble again. I also struggle to see how Liverpool will create enough clear cut chances to score.

My advice is to back Manchester United -1 Asian Handicap at 2.80 for 4.4325% of bank. This price is available with 888 Sport.

bet365Arsene Wenger

 

Cherry Analysts

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