Premier League – Sunday 20th September 2015

Starting Bank:£5,000 | Running Total:£5,147.62 | RoI/RoT:+15.01%| RoC:+2.95%
Level Stakes Profit/Loss to 1 Point: +2.64

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Tottenham v Crystal Palace” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

I’ve mentioned a few time on twitter and in general conversations that I think Spurs Harry Kane ‘over-achieved’ last season. They finished six, which is where they should have finished, however a large part of this was down to Harry Kane massively out-performing his expected goals tally. This season we are seeing the expected regression to the mean from him and I’d be surprised if he scores more than 13 goals. I don’t think that Tottenham have looked particularly good in any of their matches and their lack of alternative front men is showing, with 14.81% of their Shots on Target becoming goals.

Crystal Palace have had a fine start to the season and deserved a point from the Manchester City match last weekend. One thing that does concern me about Palace is the number of shots they have conceded so far, they’re currently worst in the league for that stat with an average of 19 per game. That may just be due to the fixtures that they’ve had, Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester City are three of the five so far. I’ve made a change to my rating of them based on this, but I do expect to see the number of shots conceded rapidly decrease over the next month as they play ‘easier’ side. 

Goal Expectancies
Tottenham – 1.563715
Crystal Palace – 1.330612
Modelled Match Odds
Tottenham – 2.33
Crystal Palace – 3.08
Draw – 4.03
Most Likely Correct Score: 1-1 
The best value in this market involves the scorelines where both teams score, and the game ends with a draw or away win. The one exception to that is the 1-1 draw, which I have priced at 8.68 but only 8.00 is available. The best two bets look to be 1-2 at 15.0 and 1-3 at 41.0, which are both available with Bet Victor.

Asian Handicaps

SpuCry

I don’t think they’ll be much between these two sides at the end of the season, Tottenham obviously should be favourites for this match but all the value is on the Crystal Palace side of the market.

Initially I was going to back Crystal Palace +0.50, which would mean that if the game ended in a draw I would win. However after entering the odds above, I’ve seen the the optimum bet is to back Crystal Palace of 0, which means if it’s a draw I get my money back. One thing of note is that both these sides have performed well against the handicap in the last two seasons, Crystal Palace won the handicap table last year, despite only playing half a season and finished 7th the year before. This year they already look like they will out-perform their handicap expectations and haven’t lost against the spread so far this season.

My advice is to back Crystal Palace 0 Asian Handicap at 2.95 for 3.48% of bank, with 888Sport.

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Southampton v Manchester United” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

I was going to re-rate Southampton and mark them down when I saw the odds that my model gave out for this game, then I looked at their season stats so far.

Southampton

Basically the graph shows that they’re conceding less shots than they did last season and less of these shots are of target but I would expect that to increase. However 50% of the shots they’ve conceded have turned into goals, this will decrease over time. Looking at this, all be it from a small sample size I don’t think that Southampton are any worse than last season and may actually be improving, despite all the player sales.

Manchester United are a side that has to be opposed away from home in my opinion. The way they setup on the road makes them difficult to beat, but even harder for them to win. Their trip to Swansea was perfect example of this, in the sense that if you score one goal against them, you’re unlikely to lose and if you score two goals you’ll probably win.

Goal Expectancies
Southampton – 1.500779
Manchester United – 0.945135
Modelled Match Odds
Southampton – 1.99
Manchester United – 4.20
Draw – 3.83
Most Likely Correct Score: 1-0 
A 1-0 victory for Southampton can be considered value as it’s available to back at 9.50, with my price being 7.69. However it’s the 2-0 Southampton victory that has the largest edge, I have that outcome priced up at 10.24, but 18.0 is available with Bet Victor.

Asian Handicaps

SouMan

For me this game is all about Southampton scoring one goal. If they get the one goal then I don’t think they’ll lose this match.

I think there’s a huge home/away bias here and Manchester United are being massively overrated. Manchester United failed to cover the spread in 55.30% of games in 2013/14 and 57.90% of the time last season season. Over the same period Southampton have covered the spread 50% of the time. To put some context around that Southampton been the 7th best handicapping side of the last two seasons, whilst Manchester United have been 14th. If we translate that back to how the last two league tables have finished then this game can be seen as Southampton v Leicester or Manchester United v Sunderland.

I’m having my largest bet of the season so far in this match by backing Southampton 0 Asian Handicap at 2.30 for 10.77% of bank. These odds are available with Bet Victor.

 

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