Aston Villa v Stoke City

Starting Bank:£5,000 | Running Total:£4,718.14 | RoI/RoT:-7.35%| RoC:-5.63%
Level Stakes Profit/Loss to 1 Point: +2.59

Aston Villa are without a win in the league since the first game of the season, when they were fortunate to beat Bournemouth. Looking at their shot data it’s difficult to make any case for them  being unlucky and therefore having the ability to regress to the mean. They are simple a poor side with a limited goal threat, which will concede at the other end.

Stoke managed to get their first win of the season last weekend, like Villa that was also against Bournemouth. The week before that they blew a two goal lead at home to Leicester, with poor second half performance. However the signs are there that Stoke are about to get back to the levels they’ve been showing for the last two seasons.

Goal Expectancy
Aston Villa– 1.033645
Stoke City
– 1.227109
Modelled Match Odds
Aston Villa – 3.23
Stoke City– 2.46
Draw – 3.50
Most Likely Correct Score: 1-1 

Asian Handicaps


I think that Stoke will score in this match and all the value is stacked on the away side. The optimum bet is to back Stoke on the 0 Asian Handicap, this is the same as Draw No Bet, so if it ends in a draw your stake is returned.

The odds for this match are the same as they were back in February, however those odds were skewed by the fact that Tim Sherwood had just become the new manager. Stoke won that game 2-1.

At the end of the season I expect to see about a 20 points difference between these clubs, which should show that Stoke are the better of the two sides and that today’s bet was a good one.

My advice is to back Stoke 0 Asian Handicap at 2.10 for 4.34% of bank.

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