Newcastle United v Stoke City

Starting Bank:£5,000 | Running Total:£4,618.58 | RoI/RoT:-8.60%| RoC:-7.62%
Level Stakes Profit/Loss to 1 Point: +1.19

Newcastle United got their first win of the season when thumping Norwich 6-2 in their last home game. That left them full of confidence ahead of the derby game last weekend, they somehow managed to lose that match 3-0. They had another man sent off, which seems to be a continuation of last season where they had they joint most players red carded with seven. The fact that they’ve had these men sent off this season goes some way to explaining why they have conceded 17.2 shots per game, however a problematic trend is setting in and I’m not sure if Steve McClaren is the man to lead Newcastle to a top half finish.

Stoke have had a difficult start to the season, inconsistency has left them 14th in table but the signs are there that improvement is coming. With Ryan Shawcross back they should now start to improve defensively, which will mean the 14.9 shots per game they’re currently conceding will come down.

Goal Expectancies
Newcastle – 1.37
Stoke – 1.39
Modelled Match Odds
Newcastle – 2.71
Stoke – 2.65
Draw – 3.91
Most Likely Correct Score: 1-1 

The only bets that offer any ‘value’ in this market are the Stoke wins where both teams score. I actually have the Stoke win and Both Teams to score priced at 5.37, however Bet365 are offering 6.50 on this outcome. 

Asian Handicaps

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I have to side with Stoke in this match, even after making some adjustments to my numbers to try and account for Newcastle’s red cards I still want Stoke with some draw cover. Earlier in the week the 0 Asian Handicap was priced at 2.15. Since then Stoke have played 120 minutes in the League Cup, where they beat Chelsea on penalties, but I don’t think that’s worthy of a drift in odds.

Both sides have some injury concerns and the loss of Jack Colback for Newcastle should bring their goal expectancy down slightly. For me the obvious play is to side with Stoke and get some draw cover, so I wouldn’t put anyone of the +0.25 or -0.25 lines. For me however is’t the 0 (Draw No Bet) that interests me the most. I think Stokes extra quality negates the home field advantage in this and therefore I have these teams nearly ‘equal’ today. I would have the 0 Asian Handicap priced up at 1.97 (50.58%).

Back Stoke City 0 Asian Handicap at 2.34 for 3.425% of bank. This price is available with Bet Victor.

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