Premier League Saturday 17th October 2015

Starting Bank:£5,000 | Running Total:£4,943.51 | RoI/RoT:-1.39%| RoC:-1.12%
Level Stakes Profit/Loss to 1 Point: +3.69

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Tottenham v Liverpool” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Tottenham haven’t been beaten since the first game of the season, despite the fact that Harry Kane is in full regression to the mean mode. What I like about Spurs this season is the number of shots they are having compared to last season, they are currently averaging 16.5 shots per game, which is up from 13.79 last season. Defensively they’re conceding the same number of shots, but less of these are on target.

I don’t expect Harry Kane to hit the height of last season, but I do expect to see him improve on what he has shown so far this year. So far he has had 28 shots, from this I would expect him to have scored three goals instead of the one he currently has. Of those 28 shots, 9 have been on target which fits in with a perfectly acceptable rate. In short, he’s not doing anything differently to last season, he’s just not getting the same luck.

Brendan Rodgers was a victim of Luis Suarez’s success. In 2013/14 Liverpool had 17.11 shots per game, which makes sense due to the firepower they had. However what they also had that year was an unsustainable Shots to Shot on Target ratio of 39.85% and a Shot on Target to Goal ratio of 39%. In 2014/15 they regressed to a more manageable mean and achieved a Shots to Shot on Target Ratio of 32.88%, however with no Suarez they only managed to convert 26.8% of their shots on target. So far this season, they are having 14.88 shots per game, with 34.45% of these on target. Their problem is with the finishing, 19.51% is the worst in the league, however that would have naturally improved as the season went on.

Goal Expectancies
Tottenham – 1.590185
Liverpool – 1.199385
Modelled Match Odds
Tottenham – 2.15
Liverpool – 3.47
Draw – 4.01
Most Likely Correct Score: 1-1 

There isn’t much that appeals to me in the correct score market, If I was forced to have a bet it would be on a 2-0 Tottenham victory. I have this priced up at 12.87, but Bet Victor have this priced at 15.0, which gives 1.10% of ‘value’ based on my numbers.
Asian Handicaps

TotLivThe odds suggest that Liverpool are superior to Tottenham, this isn’t the case. Tottenham finished above Liverpool last season and I would expect these two sides to be within two points of each other again this term. Even account for the new manager bounce, I would still make Tottenham a shorter price than the 2.4x available.

With 1-1 being the most likely score and my numbers telling me that -0.25 (0,-0.5) is the best Asian line to take, I am happy to get involved at the prices. If the game ends in a draw then half of my stake will be returned. I have the -0.25 line priced up at 1.88.

Back Tottenham -0.25 Asian Handicap at 2.12 for 2.735% of bank. This price is available with Bet Victor.

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Everton v Manchester United” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Whenever I see the fixture list with Manchester United playing away from home, I know it’s likely I’ll be looking to oppose them. They just don’t score or create enough when on the road to be priced up the way they usually are. Defeats at Swansea and Arsenal, along with a David De Gea masterclass and some luck at Southampton have only enhanced this belief.

Everton have only been beaten once this season and will be expecting to challenge for the top-six again after a poor campaign last year. I believe that we cwill again see them as a solid home side, especially now they appear to have a settled defence. With Stones and Coleman back in the side I don’t expect to see them concede too many goals at home, especially against shot shy Manchester United.

Goal Expectancies
Everton– 1.169001
Manchester Utd
– 1.242675
Modelled Match Odds
Everton – 2.90
Manchester Utd – 2.63
Draw – 3.62
Most Likely Correct Score: 1-1 

The 7.50 on the 1-1 being offered by the bookmakers, doesn’t appear to be that bad a bet. It’s still no value, as I have it at 7.67 but it’s definitely not the worst bet you could have. If I was having a bet in this market I would be backing the 1-0 Everton win at 11.0 (Bet365 & Bet Victor) as I have this priced up at 9.54.
Asian Handicaps

EveManAs with the Manchester United games at Swansea and Southampton the best value bet appears to be the 0 Asian Handicap (Draw No Bet) on the home side. The reason for this comes down to Manchester United’s general lack of goals away from home. They scored 1 or fewer in 12 of 19 away games last season and so far this year they have scored 1 or fewer in 3 of their 4 away days. The only game they score more than one was when all three of their shots on target at Southampton went in.

 Another reason to oppose Manchester United in the Asian Handicap markets is that over the last two seasons they have covered the line 43.4% of the time, whilst Everton haven’t done much better they have still been the more profitable side in handicap betting terms.

Back Everton 0 Asian Handicap at 2.34 for 2.09% of bank. This price is available with Bet Victor.

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Southampton v Leicester City” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

I think that Southampton are an excellent side, I’m still struggling to see how they were beaten by Manchester United. The win at Chelsea last time out was no fluke, they have been creating chances all season. They are sitting 4th in the Shots table with 16.13 per game, 35.66% of these have been on target which is sustainable, but ‘only’ 28.26% of their shots on target have been turned into goals, there’s even room for improvement.

Another impressive stat regarding Southampton is that 50% of the shots on target they’ve faced, found the back of the net. That number will come down of the coming weeks. They’re conceding 9.63 shots per game, which is in line with the previous two seasons, so this is no flash in the pan. If I was going to have a long term bet on Southampton it would be on them to finish in the Top 4 at 19.0 (18/1) with Betfred.

Leicester have had fantastic start to the season, which has followed on from where they left of last year, yet I don’t think they’re genuine top six contenders. 41.46% of their shots on target have found the back of the net, that number has to come down, because if it doesn’t they will scoring with about the same accuracy as Manchester City did when they scored 102 goals in 2013/14.

Goal Expectancies
Southampton– 1.854989
Leicester City
– 0.801375
Modelled Match Odds
Southampton – 1.60
Leicester City – 6.40
Draw – 4.52
Most Likely Correct Score: 1-0

Southampton have been unlucky with the number of goals they’ve conceded this year, whilst Leicester are scoring more than they should be. Due to this I think that a Southampton win to nil is a good bet. The scoreline I like the most is the 2-0 home victory, I have this priced up at 8.27 however Bet Victor are offering 10.0 which equates to 2.07% of theoretical value.
Asian Handicaps

SouLeiMy goal expectancies have Southampton a full goal ahead of Leicester, which equates to them being priced at 1.6 in my match odds book. To look at it another way I see Southampton at the same level, longer term, as Liverpool and Tottenham. Would you be shocked to find either of those sides priced at 1.6 at home to Leicester? I wouldn’t.

I think that Southampton -1 Asian Handicap, should be priced up at around the 2.00 mark, a 50% chance. Instead we’re being offered 2.38. The added bonus of taking this line over say the Southampton win is that you get paid out at a bigger price, but if they only win by a single goal your stake is returned.

Back Southampton -1 Asian Handicap at 2.38 for 3.1625% of bank. This price is available with Paddy Power and 888 Sport.

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