Arsenal v Tottenham

Starting Bank:£5,000 | Running Total:£4,618.58 | RoI/RoT:-8.31%| RoC:-7.62%
Level Stakes Profit/Loss to 1 Point: +1.19

Arsenal are title contenders, they’re having more shots per game (19.18) than anyone else in the league and they’re conceding the third lowest number per game with 10.64. They key thing that jumps out at me with regard to Arsenal and where they may end up going is that only 16.67% of shots on target against them have found the back of the net. That adds weight to the argument that Petr Cech is worth ten points a season, however I don’t think that their final SoT to Goals number will be 16.67%, therefore I expect to see them concede a few more goals in the coming weeks.

Tottenham are having a very solid season, unbeaten since the opening weekend when they were unlucky to lose 1-0 at Manchester United, they’re now unbeaten in their last ten league games. What I like about Tottenham this season is that they are having more shots, up to 16 per game from 13.79. They will need to keep that number up if they are to make real challenge for a Champions League place.

Goal Expectancies
Arsenal – 1.71
Tottenham – 1.25
Modelled Match Odds
Arsenal – 2.07
Tottenham – 3.57
Draw – 4.18
Most Likely Correct Score: 1-1 

The value score lines are on the Tottenham side of the market. I have 0-1 priced at 15.53, yet 20.0 is available, whilst 36.0 is available for 0-2 which I have priced at 24.78. The 1-2 score is the most likely Spurs win, which I have priced up at 14.44, but 18.0 is on offer.

The 1-1 and 2-2 draws aren’t strictly value, but if working to zero decimal places they’re not the worst bets that can be had for some interest.

Asian Handicaps


The value in the market is to side with Tottenham. Arsenal are rightly favourites, but I wouldn’t want to be backing them to win by more than one goal. In the last two seasons Tottenham have covered their Asian line 52.6% of the time. This season they are down at 40%, but I do believe they’re better than that. A large part of their game is Harry Kane, who I expect to regress to the mean this season, but he is still a great finisher. If they continue to create more chance than last season, his final goal tally may get to the same levels as this would off-set the regression.

I don’t think that Arsenal will win this by two clear goals, I think that Tottenham will score one and we’ll either see a final score of 1-1 or 2-1. Therefore I’m happy that my numbers are telling me the best bet to have is Tottenham +1 at 1.78. This means that a single goal defeat for the visitors will result in stakes being returned. A draw of a Tottenham victory will result in a winning bet.

Back Tottenham +1 Asian Handicap @ 1.78 for 6.15% of bank. This price is available with Bet Victor.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *