Everton v Aston Villa

Starting Bank:£5,000 | Running Total:£4,840.13 | RoI/RoT:-3.28%| RoC:-3.19%
Level Stakes Profit/Loss to 1 Point: +1.97

Everton are currently scoring a goal from every 2.6 Shots on Target that they have, a conversion rate of 38.46%. They will not be able to keep that up for the remainder of the season. That will become a problem for them as defensively they are letting the opposition have more shots against, 14.67, than the 12.08 that they average per game. Their Shot on  Target percentages read For 35.86% Against 35.8%, but the big difference in their fortunes is that they are scoring with 38.46% of their SoTs, but only conceding from 25.4%. Neither of those numbers are sustainable and I expect to see Everton dropping points soon.

Aston Villa are where they deserve to be, there isn’t many positives that I can write about them. They were lucky last time out against Manchester City, but I’m sure they’re delighted about the point. The best thing to happen to them this season was the sacking of Tim Sherwood. 

Goal Expectancies
Everton – 1.59
Aston Villa – 1.13
Modelled Match Odds
Everton – 2.07
Aston Villa – 3.69
Draw – 4.00
Most Likely Correct Score: 1-1 

Asian Handicaps


My numbers tell me that backing Aston Villa off a 0 Asian Line (Draw No Bet) at 4.70 with 888Sport is the best bet to have in this market, and their line does look out of sync. However I don’t trust Villa enough to get a draw, therefore I think it’s best to take the second ‘best’ bet on this list, which is +1 at 1.88.

Backing Aston Villa +1 means that if Everton only win by one goal stakes are returned. Despite Aston Villa’s league position, which is where they deserve to be based on Shot on Target Supremacy, they have only been beaten by more than a single goal twice. One of those was away to Chelsea (2-0), the other was at Tottenham when they conceded with the last kick of the game to lose 3-1. 

With Everton currently overachieving at both ends of the pitch they have to be opposed today. Back Aston Villa +1 Asian Handicap at 1.88 for 7.8025% of Bank. These odds are available with Bet365.

Micah Richards

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