Manchester City v Liverpool

Starting Bank:£5,000 | Running Total:£4,840.13 | RoI/RoT:-3.28%| RoC:-3.19%
Level Stakes Profit/Loss to 1 Point: +1.97

So the Klopp bubble burst two weeks ago, how it got inflated in the first place is a mystery. Liverpool are a very long way away from being title challengers in the foreseeable future, they are a team that probably should be finishing 5th to 7th with the occasional 4th placed finish. In other words they are what we expect from Tottenham and they should be happy with that.

Manchester City are the best team in the league, they concede less shots than anyone else, and the only team that beat them on shots for this season is Arsenal, who average 0.17 more shots per game. Manchester City however have more Shots on Target than Arsenal, and also turn a greater proportion of them into goals. 

On a side not, Raheem Sterling is now playing consistently for a side that are in the Champions League and top of the table. He trains alongside players who will help improve his game and he’ll have medals top show for it at the end of his career. He made the right decision to leave Liverpool as he knew Brendan Rodgers wasn’t going to lead them to success., hopefully Liverpool fans can now see that.

Goal Expectancies
Man City – 2.06
Liverpool – 0.78
Modelled Match Odds
Man City – 1.49
Liverpool – 7.55
Draw – 5.04
Most Likely Correct Score: 2-0

Asian Handicaps


Manchester City -1 jumps off the screen at me in this, most people will agree that Manchester City will win this match and backing them at 1.7x to do that is a perfectly acceptable bet. However why not try and push the advantage and back them -1, meaning if they win by a single goal you get your stake returned. If they win by more than a single goal you get paid out at 2.30.

My numbers indicate that the line should be set at 1.25 for this match, however the general line is 0.75. Everything points to a Manchester City win and them scoring at least two goals, I have their expected Shots on Target at 5.30 compared to 3.35 for Liverpool. 

Back Manchester City -1 Asian Handicap at 2.30 for 5.565% of bank. These odds are available with Bet Victor.

Sevilla v Manchester City - UEFA Champions League Group Stage - Group D

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