Starting Bank:£5,000 | Running Total:£4,364.74 | RoI/RoT:-11.16%| RoC:-12.70%
Level Stakes Profit/Loss to 1 Point: +1.01
I think this is a very interesting and informative match-up. On the one hand we have an Everton side who are in good form and scoring goals. However their recent run of form has come against Sunderland, Aston Villa and Bournemouth who are sides that they should be beating. In those three games Everton scored from 56.52% of their shots on target, which is too high to be sustainable. That is only a small sample size, so when looking at the season as a whole we can see that they’ve scored from 40.30% of their shots on target, again they cannot sustain this for the whole season. I therefore expect Everton’s goal scoring exploits to drop off in the coming weeks.
The part of this game that interest me from a Crystal Palace point of view is that home field advantage doesn’t appear to matter to them, playing at Selhurst Park actually yields fewer points. Of the fifteen games that Palace have played away from home in 2015, they have a record of won 10, drawn 1, lost 4, that equates to 31 points, which is over two points per game and can only be bettered by Arsenal (2.11 ppg) over the same time period.
I realise that saying Crystal Palace should be favourites away to Everton on the face of it seems like crazy talk, however as I said above I think that home advantage basically goes out the window when it comes to Crystal Palace. As a comparison I modelled what I would expect the match-odds to be if this was at Selhurst Park, as you can see below their is hardly any movement in the Crystal Palace price.
Crystal Palace – 2.42
Everton – 2.95
Draw – 4.00
Most Likely Correct Score: 1-1
1-1 is the most likely scoreline, which is available to back at 7.00, however I believe that this outcome should be priced at 8.95. The only draw score that I have down as ‘value’ is the 2-2, which is available at 16.00, which is 0.04% larger than the 15.87 that I have it priced at.
As I’ve alluded too I believe that these are two evenly matched sides and home advantage isn’t a large factor. I therefore want at least some draw cover and was pleased to see that my numbers are telling me Crystal Palace 0 Asian Handicap is the best bet to have. This means that stakes are returned if the game ends in a draw.
Everton are yet to beat a side that currently reside in the top half and somehow managed to concede three at home to Manchester United. Their record against top half side last season was also poor with three wins in twenty games. Crystal Palace managed six wins from eighteen matches against the sides that finished above them.
Crystal Palace might lose tonight, but I don’t think they’ll be making this as easy as Sunderland and Aston Villa made it. I expect Crystal Palace to score tonight and have given them a 25% chance of scoring twice, two goals should be enough to secure at least a point.
My advice is to back Crystal Palace 0 Asian Handicap at 2.70 for 6.375% of bank. This price is available with 888 Sport.