Starting Bank:£5,000 | Running Total:£4,364.74 | RoI/RoT:-10.64%| RoC:-12.70%
Level Stakes Profit/Loss to 1 Point: +1.01
Unfortunately, for my above P&L numbers I can’t use what I put on Twitter yesterday, but that’s my own fault and I’ll move on.
— Cherry Analysts (@CherryAnalysts) December 13, 2015
Another week goes by and Leicester City are still in form, this run stretches back twenty-seven games, which makes it harder to say it’s just a flash in the pan. I still expect them to regress to the mean when it comes to goalscoring as 41.56% of their Shots on Target are finding the back of the net this season. They won’t be able to continue at that rate for another twenty-three games. For the purposes of my calculations I currently have them to finish the season with a SOT:GOAL ratio of 38.31%, which is still high and subject to change, but it is achievable.
Chelsea start this game in sixteenth position and have shown nothing this season to suggest that they don’t deserve to be there. 42.08% of the shots they concede are on target, however I have this number at 36.48% for the purposes of my calculations. They are however only conceding from 31.17% of these shots, which is a perfectly acceptable number, therefore it’s difficult to make a case for them being unlucky. Their main problem is in front of goal, they’ve had 214 shots this season, Leicester have had 216, yet only 7.94% of these have found the back of the net. When looking into their Shot on Target stats 29.44% of their shots are on target, with 26.98% of these finding the back of the net. They need an improvement from Hazard and Costa in front of goal otherwise, they’ll sink further into relegation trouble.
Leicester – 2.01
Chelsea – 1.47
Modelled Match Odds
Leicester – 2.00
Chelsea – 3.56
Draw – 4.54
These modelled match odds are what you’d expect to see if this current Chelsea side visited Arsenal, Manchester City or even Tottenham. It may look ridiculous to give Leicester a 50% chance of winning this match, but they’ve show for a sustained period of time that they deserve to be where they are.
Most Likely Correct Score: 2-1
Backing Leicester to win 2-1 offers some value, I have this outcome priced at 10.93 however 12.00 is available. The best correct score bet is a 3-1 victory for Leicester City, I have this priced at 16.31, yet 29.00 is available with 888Sport.
The best Asian Handicap bet in this match is to take Leicester 0 at 2.28, this is the same as Draw No Bet. I think I’ve outlined the reasons for backing this above and I see no reason to think that Chelsea will suddenly turn it on or Leicester will fall apart. Yes, Chelsea might win, I’ve given them a 28% chance of doing so, therefore I believe that there is a 72% chance of not losing on this bet. My advice is to back Leicester City 0 Asian Handicap at 2.28 for 8.9875% of bank. This price is available with 888Sport.