Premier League – 19th December 2015

Starting Bank:£5,000 | Running Total:£4,866.86 | RoI/RoT:-2.09%| RoC:-2.66%
Level Stakes Profit/Loss to 1 Point: +2.29

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Chelsea v Sunderland” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

So Mourinho is no more, does this mean that the Chelsea players will suddenly start to perform 100% better than before? Will a 100% improvement be enough? I wouldn’t like to be backing them to instantly turn things around, especially at the odds they currently are. With no prospect of qualifying for the Champions League via a top four finish, do they now put all their eggs in one basket to try and win that competition? It would make sense for them to do that in my opinion. There’s so many questions that will be answered over the coming weeks and months.

Sunderland got an excellent and well deserved result at Crystal Palace a few weeks ago, they then played very well against Arsenal and beat Stoke. Despite their 1-0 defeat to Watford they look a lot more likely to stay up under Sam Allardyce, than they ever did under Dick Advocaat. That’s down to their improved defensive shape, due to that they’ll have the ability to frustrate a Chelsea side who haven’t fired all season.

Goal Expectancies
Chelsea – 2.01
Sunderland – 0.83
Modelled Match Odds
Chelsea – 1.54
Sunderland – 6.84
Draw – 4.86

Most Likely Correct Score: 2-0

Asian Handicaps

CheSun

I have to side with Sunderland in this match, the standard Asian line is set at 1.50, however I’d prefer to be either side of that, so I’m pleased my numbers tell me the optimum bet is +1. If Sunderland lose by a single goal then the stake is returned, however if they lose by two goals the bet is a loser, which is the same outcome as backing the +1.50 line.

Back Sunderland +1 Asian Handicap at 2.85 for 4.495% of bank. These odds are available with 888Sport.

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Everton v Leicester City” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

I could copy and paste what I’ve been writing about these two sides for the last few weeks as nothing has changed. Everyone seems to tell you that Everton had a poor season last year, due to the Europa League and they’ll be much better this year. Well after sixteen games last season, they were in 10th with 21 points, a year later they’re in 10th with 23 points. It’s a slight improvement, however that equates to 4.75 extra points over thirty-eight games, which if added to last seasons total would have moved them from 10th to 9th.

Leicester have been in title challenging form for twenty-eight games now, but apparently it’s all a fluke if you listen to some people, or even look at the odds. Arsenal, Manchester City, Tottenham, Liverpool and Manchester United, even Chelsea would be a shorter price than Leicester are in this matchup. And for what reason? Because of their name.

Goal Expectancies
Everton – 1.44
Leicester – 1.70
Modelled Match Odds
Everton – 3.06
Leicester – 2.29
Draw – 4.22

Most Likely Correct Score: 1-1

Asian Handicaps

EveLeic

Backing Leicester City on a 0 Asian Handicap has been advised on this site in their last two matches, both of which have proved profitable at 2.02 and 2.28, I see no reason to doubt the value of having that bet again today. Everton may win the match, but there is no way that you should be able to back a team on run that has been sustained for this period of time at this price. When Manchester United visited Goodison Park two months ago, they were priced at 1.68 on the 0 line, Leicester have been better than Manchester United for a long period of time now and have actually picked up more points in 2015 than them.

Back Leicester 0 Asian Handicap at 2.50 for 7.1675% of bank. These odds are available with 888Sport.

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Stoke City v Crystal Palace” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

If I could copy and paste my thoughts for Leicester and Everton, then I could just direct you to my Everton v Crystal Palace preview to point out my thoughts on this game. It’s exactly the same scenario, on the one hand you have a side that are massively overachieving defensively against a side that aren’t hindered by home field advantage. 

Only 17.28% of the Shots on Target that Stoke City have faced this season have gone in, which is 4% lower than anyone else in the league. In my opinion that level is unsustainable over thirty-eight games, Jack Butland has been fantastic, but he’s kept them in games and I don’t see him keeping another clean sheet today.

Crystal Palace were excellent against Southampton last weekend, it was one of the most professional performances I’ve seen them put in for a long time. The controlled the game, created chances and it it wasn’t for the Southampton goalkeeper being Man Of The Match, they would have won three or four nil.

Goal Expectancies
Stoke City – 1.21
Crystal Palace – 1.35
Modelled Match Odds
Stoke City – 2.99
Crystal Palace – 2.49
Draw – 3.75

Most Likely Correct Score: 1-1

Asian Handicaps

StkCry

Backing Crystal Palace on a 0 Asian line, the same as Draw No Bet, has been a money maker all year. They’ve played sixteen games away from home in 2015, won ten, drawn two and lost four. Is that sustained level of form suddenly going stop, maybe, but the value is definitely with Crystal Palace.

Back Crystal Palace 0 Asian Handicap at 2.20 for 4.165% of bank. This price is available with Bet Victor.

Wes Morgan

 

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