Premier League – Boxing Day 2015

Starting Bank:£5,000 | Running Total:£5414.58 | RoI/RoT:+5.81%| RoC:+8.29%
Level Stakes Profit/Loss to 1 Point: +3.99

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Liverpool v Leicester City” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

I’m getting a little bit bored of writing the same things about Leicester City each week, what I wrote for their games against Swansea, Chelsea and Everton still ring true and there’s no reason to change my opinions for this match. One thing I have done this week is to look at the last 38 games played by each Premier League side and build a table on that. This table started in January last year, when Leicester could buy a win, however over the last 38 games played they’ve picked up 68 points, which would put them 4th in the league over the last 38 game period. In the same table Liverpool are 5th with 64 points. 

So Liverpool have gone from the greatest team in the world managed by a miracle worker, to being the same Liverpool all of us non Liverpool fans see. Klopp isn’t a miracle worker, he took the 2nd best side in Germany to the best side in Germany. Those in the media claim that this is an amazing achievement, especially when added to them losing a Champions League final. To put a point of reference on this Glasgow Rangers managed by Walter Smith lost a UEFA Cup final in 2008 and won the league in 2009, is he also the second coming?

Goal Expectancies
Liverpool – 1.57
Leicester – 1.46
Modelled Match Odds
Liverpool – 2.48
Leicester – 2.81
Draw – 4.12

Most Likely Correct Score: 1-1

As you can probably guess the ‘value’ correct score bets are all on the Leicester City side of the market.

LivLeiCS

I have given Leicester a 24.82% chance of scoring exactly two goals in this match, which is something they’ve done exactly 7 times this season, or 41.17%. Therefore 0-2 at 29.0 (28/1) and 1-2 15.0 (14/1) both look like good bets to have.

Asian Handicaps

LivLei

For the 4th week in a row my numbers are showing that backing Leicester on the 0 Asian Handicap line is the optimum bet to have in this match. 

My one reservation with this bet is that Liverpool only look good against sides that come out and attack them, which is what Leicester City will look to do. I do expect Liverpool to score and I do agree with them being favourites in this match, however the prices look wrong overall.

I expect Leicester to score at least one goal and in truth I’ll be surprised if they don’t get two, which means that Liverpool would need to score three goals for this bet to lose, they’ve only managed to score three goals in a home league game twice in 2015.

Back Leicester City 0 Asian Handicap at 3.00 for 5.07% of bank. These odds are available with 888 Sport.

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Swansea City v West Brom” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Swansea haven’t won a game in over two months, that was a victory over Aston Villa. That win on the 24th of October was their first since 30th August. They’re not having a good time in South Wales, a lot of the blame has been placed at Bafetimbi Gomis and his lack of goals. He has 4 in 17 appearances this season, but I think the bigger issue is with the rest of the team creating chances for him. He’s had 42 shots this year of which 35% have been on target, whilst 26% of those have found the back of the net. These numbers are similar to Troy Deeney at Watford, however he has Ighalo to pick up the slack and create more chances. Teams have now worked out that if you stop Andre Awew, you stop Swansea, when he has an off day the whole team does as they don’t create chances or score goals.

West Brom had been in good form until last weeks defeat to Bournemouth, however they did play an hour with ten men and ended the game with nine. I don’t think that James McClean will be that much of a miss to them. I would expect Berahino to come in for the suspended Rondon, which in fact may improve their goal-scoring ability.

Goal Expectancies
Swansea – 1.30
West Brom – 1.09
Modelled Match Odds
Swansea – 2.41
West Brom – 3.21
Draw – 3.63

Most Likely Correct Score: 1-1

The bookies favourite for this market is a 1-0 home victory, which on the face of it is a logical choice if you fancy Swansea but it’s a poor price at 6.50 (11/2), I have this priced up as at 8.41. The correct scores on an away win are where the bulk of the value is 0-2 at 26.0 (25/1) and 1-2 at 19.0 (18/1) looking the best. If you play this market then it may also be worth putting some money on 2-2 at 25.0 (24/1) and 3-3 at 181.0 (180/1), these scores may seem very unlikely based on how these two sides play, but they are definitely overpriced, especially if there’s an early goal.

Asian Handicaps

SwaWBA

I don’t understand why Swansea are odds-on to win this match, due to that all the value in the Asian Handicap market is with West Brom. Swansea have 1 win in their last 13 games, which came against the worst side in the league and they’ve already failed to score in 8 matches this season. That all makes it very difficult to justify them being 1.9x.

West Brom will come her, look to soak up pressure and take their chances at set pieces, I give them a 27.14% chance of keeping a clean sheet and a 36.64% chance of scoring exactly 1 goal. If West Brom do score 1 goal then, Swansea will need to score 2 or more, I’ve given this a 37.46% chance, for this bet to lose.

Back West Brom 0 Asian Handicap at 3.20 for 4.225% of bank. These odds are available with 888 Sport.

Ranieri

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