Swansea City v Leicester City

Starting Bank:£5,000 | Running Total:£4,193.13 | RoI/RoT:-14.61%| RoC:-16.13%
Level Stakes Profit/Loss to 1 Point: -0.03

Is it a fluke that Leicester are second in the league? Can it last? I don’t want to call it a fluke as Leicester deserve to be where they are. In their final twelve games of last season they picked up twenty-three points (1.92 ppg) and over their final nine games of the 2004/15 season there was no team better than them. If we add the fourteen games they’ve played this season to that, then we have  third of a season played where they’ve picked up fifty-two points (2 ppg). Last season two points per game would have given you a third placed finish. I personally don’t think that Leicester will finish in he top four, as I don’t believe they can continue to score with over 40% of their shots on target, therefore a decline to finish of around 7th place is where I would currently pitch them.

Swansea are going in the complete opposite direction, with one victory in ten and that was at Aston Villa where they came from behind and won it with a late goal. I’ve read a number of articles this week saying that Swansea looked much improved at Anfield last week as they only lost 1-0. However nobody has actually been able to name a side that have looked poor away to Liverpool this season, whilst no side has been beaten by more than one goal there even under Klopp.

Goal Expectancies
Swansea – 1.33
Leicester – 1.59
Modelled Match Odds
Swansea – 3.12
Leicester – 2.30
Draw – 4.06
Most Likely Correct Score: 1-1

This doesn’t look like a great market to get involved in, the value correct scores are on the Leicester side, with 0-3 offering the biggest degree of ‘value’ at +0.83%, this scoreline is available at 36.0 (35/1) with BetVictor, however I make the true odds 27.69 (26/1).

Asian Handicaps


This match is all about Leicester and their ability to score goals. Leicester have scored in every game this season, they have the best away record and have also scored more goals on the road than anyone else (15). It is worth pointing out they don’t have a great defensive record, 13th overall in the league and only two clean sheets. However if they were better at the back I would probably have them priced up at 2.0x to win this match.

Swansea come into this match with no clean sheets in their last eight league games, they have one clean sheet all season, but they have conceded two goals less than Leicester this season. Their main problem seems to be their attack, which has failed to score six times this season and in four of the last eight matches.

I have Swansea down for 3.91 shots on target v 4.71 for Leicester, with than amount of shots on target I would expect Leicester to score at least one goal, whilst Swansea’s less than average attack will struggle to score two goals if they cannot muster more than four shots on target.

1-1 looks the most likely outcome from a correct score point of view, however if their is going to be a winner it’s likely to be Leicester City, due to their goal scoring ability. Therefore I’m happy that my model is showing Leicester 0 Asian Handicap as the optimum bet, if the game does end a draw stakes are returned.

My advice is to back Leicester City 0 Asian Handicap at 2.02 for 4.01% of bank. This price is available with Bet Victor.

Jamie Vardy

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