Aston Villa v Crystal Palace

Starting Bank:£5,000 | Running Total:£4911.30 | RoI/RoT:-1.13%| RoC:-1.77%
Level Stakes Profit/Loss to 1 Point: +1.99

For me this match isn’t about Aston Villa, they are helpless, hopeless and on their way to The Championship with one of the worst points tallies in history.

The most fascinating thing for me in this games is the question, why aren’t Crystal Palace odds on? The Londoners were terrific on the road in 2015 and won away at Southampton, all be it an FA Cup tie, in their only 2016 trip.

On theory is the expected regression to the mean that should happen to the Palace defence over the coming months. They conceded 15.30 shots per game, of which 26.80% are on target, yet only 23.17% find the back of the the net.

I’ve tried to offset some of this expected regression by increasing the Palace SoT:Goals Against ratio from 23.17% to 26.24%. This data takes into consideration a large part of the 2014/15 season, so is therefore a good sample size.

Although I expect Crystal Palace to regress further away from my numbers, I don’t think that Aston Villa are the team to take a chunk out of it. They average 10.10 shots per game, 32.18% of these hit the target and only 24.62% of their Shots on Target become goals. I think the much larger threat the the Palace defence and an imposition will be at Manchester City on Saturday.

Goal Expectancies
Aston Villa – 0.78
Crystal Palace – 1.69

Modelled Match Odds
Aston Villa – 5.86
Crystal Palace – 1.69
Draw – 4.20

Most Likely Correct Score: 0-1

Asian Handicaps

Aston Villa Crystal Palace
I struggle to see Crystal Palace losing this game, I expect them to score and I just don’t sew how Aston Villa are going to score twice.

The best Asian Handicap bet according to my numbers is to back Crystal Palace on the 0 line (the same as Draw no Bet) at 1.78. If the games ends in a draw, then stakes are returened.

Back Crystal Palace 0 Asian Handicap at 1.78 for 12.2325% of bank. These odds are available with Bet Victor.

Cabaye Crystal Palace

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