Starting Bank:£5,000 | Running Total:£4911.30 | RoI/RoT:-1.16%| RoC:-1.77%
Level Stakes Profit/Loss to 1 Point: +1.99
[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Everton v Tottenham” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]
Around a month ago I mentioned that Everton were over-achieving based on their shots for and against data, after I made that comment they went on to beat Aston Villa 4-0. However since then they’ve gone on to only win one game, against Newcastle, from their last six. In fact, their only wins in their last twelve games have come against the three sides favoured to be relegated, Newcastle, Aston Villa and Sunderland. They have regressed to the mean defensively, especially at home where they have the worst goals conceded record in the league. The only reason they’re not in a relegation battle is due to them over-achieving offensively, they’ve scored from 39.33% of their shots on target, which I don’t believe they can sustain for the entire season. For the purposes of my numbers I have them ending the season on 36.75%, which is still high, but more believable.
Tottenham are better than Everton, they’re on course for a top three finish, they score with 27.27% of their shots on target, which leaves room for improvement, but they’ve already scored thirty-three goals this season. The big difference between these two sides is the defence. Tottenham have only conceded fifteen goals this season, the lowest in the league. Only 24.19% of the shots on target they face are finding the back of the net and even if that number were to go up to up, they would still concede less than Everton.
Goal Expectancies Everton – 1.36 Tottenham – 1.73 Modelled Match Odds Everton - 3.30 Tottenham - 2.17 Draw – 4.22
Most Likely Correct Score: 1-1
The value correct scores are on the Tottenham side of the market. The most likely of these is 1-2, which I believe should be priced at 10.81, however 11.00 is available with Bet365. The two scoreline that look the best bets on the numbers however are 0-2 at 17.00, with Bet Victor, as I make this a 14.76 chance and 1-3 at 22.00, which I believe should be priced up at 18.73.
The best bet on my numbers is to back Tottenham on the 0 Asian Handicap line at 1.90, this means that if the game ends in a draw you’ll get your money back.
Everton have been poor against top half sides for a year and a half now, last season they only beat two of the top ten at home. In this current season they’ve played seven of the current top ten at home and won none.
Back Tottenham 0 Asian Handicap at 1.90 for 4.0475% of bank. These odds are available with Bet365.