Premier League – 16th January 2016

Starting Bank:£5,000 | Running Total:£4250.53 | RoI/RoT:-8.88%| RoC:-14.98%
Level Stakes Profit/Loss to 1 Point: +0.99

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Newcastle v West Ham” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Begrudgingly I have to say I’ve been impressed with West Ham, even when they had injury concerns they still put a run of eight games unbeaten in the league together, which has taken them to fifth place.

Despite Newcastle scoring three goals in midweek against one of the better defensive sides, I’ll think they’ll find it a lot tougher this afternoon. West Ham have been a solid team defensively for a couple of seasons now, so far this year they’ve only conceded from 25.26% of the Shots On Target they’ve faced. I do however have that number currently set at 27.99% for the purposes of my calculations as they take in a longer period.

Newcastle have had the fewest shots of any side in the league this season with 200, however 36% of those have been on target with 30.56% finding the back of the net. Those numbers don’t point to a team that’s been unlucky in front of goal so I wouldn’t expect a dramatic upturn in their goal scoring fortunes anytime soon, unless they start to shoot more.

Goal Expectancies
Newcastle – 1.16
West Ham – 1.75
Modelled Match Odds
Newcastle - 3.95
West Ham - 1.95
Draw – 4.22

Most Likely Correct Score: 1-1

1-1 is the most likely score, but at odds of 7.00 it offers now value to me, I have it  priced up at 9.07. From a ‘value’ point of view I have the best correct score bet down as 1-3, I have priced this outcome at 17.67 but 29.00 (28/1) is available with Bet Victor.

Asian Handicaps

Newcastle v West Ham

The best bet for me in this match is to back West Ham on the 0 Asian Handicap. They’re currently priced at 2.23, and you get your money back if they draw. That seems like a big price for a team that has only lost twice on the road all season, and had wins at Arsenal, Manchester City and Liverpool. My numbers agree, so that’s my bet.

Back West Ham 0 Asian Handicap at 2.23 for 9.985% of bank. These odds are available with Bet Victor.

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Aston Villa v Leicester City” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

One Wayne Hennessey error doesn’t make a season, Aston Villa are still the poorest side in the league and have been for a sustained period of time now. Leicester are the opposite of that and have been one of the ‘form’ teams for a year now.

Unlike Crystal Palace, or Aston Villa, we can be more confident in Leicester scoring a goal, especially away from home where they’re averaging two goals per game.

Goal Expectancies
Aston Villa – 0.92
Leicester – 1.93
Modelled Match Odds
Aston Villa - 5.77
Leicester - 1.63
Draw – 4.62

Most Likely Correct Score: 0-1

Asian Handicaps

Aston Villa v Leicester

What price would the likes of Arsenal and Manchester City be to win this game? Even teams like Tottenham and Liverpool? If we replaced the name Leicester City with one of those four then everyone would be predicting and easy 2-0 or 3-0 victory for the away side.

My numbers show me that the best bet is Leicester City -1 Asian Handicap, this means that they need to win by two clear goals, but if they win by one goal then stakes are returned.

Back Leicester City -1 Asian Handicap at 3.35 for 6.5825% of bank. These odds are available with 888 Sport.

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