Southampton appear to be back in form, three league wins in a row and no goals conceded. It’s no surprise that this has coincided with the return of Fraser Forster in goal. However going to Arsenal is a completely different prospect and even with Charlie Austin playing I still fancy Arsenal to record a victory.
Arsenal have posted some consistent numbers this season and without Alexis Sánchez for eight games. His return is a massive boost for them, which should see their SoT:Goal increase from 30.33%.
Arsenal – 1.83
Southampton – 0.82
Modelled Match Odds
Arsenal – 1.63
Southampton – 6.08
Draw – 4.45
Most Likely Correct Score: 1-0
A 1-0 Arsenal victory is the most likely outcome on my numbers, with a 12.85% chance which equates to odds of 7.77, therefore I don’t see it as value. The ‘value’ correct scores in my opinion are 2-0, 3-0 and 3-1. Of them three scorelines 3-0 looks the best bet at 16.00 as my numbers give this a 7.17% chances and therefore odds of 13.93.
Surprisingly Arsenal are priced up at the same mark to which Manchester United opened against Southampton in the last round of fixtures. Manchester United drifted in the market because the price was seen as incorrect, because Manchester United aren’t as good as Arsenal.
Looking at this game I have Arsenal 1.01 goals better than Southampton, however the mid point int he market is making Arsenal 0.75 goals better. I therefore think the best bet to place on this match is Arsenal -1 on the Asian Handicaps. If Arsenal only win by a single goal then stakes are returned.
Back Arsenal -1 Asian Handicap at 2.45 for 2.9575% of bank. These odds are available with Bet Victor.